The final day of the group stage gave us another dose of Messi magic, but not the kind my bet needed. The punt was Argentina to win and Messi to score, and while Argentina did their job, the little genius started on the bench, so only half the ticket landed. Typical. Still, DR Congo delivered, Austria pulled off an outrageous draw with Algeria, and I cashed out Panama to lose every game after England politely ushered them out with a 2–0. All told, it wasn’t a disaster, but it had that familiar World Cup feeling of “so close to a proper green”.
Now we’re into the knockouts, where Bet365’s glorious promotion really comes into its own. Player prop bets continue into extra time, which is exactly the kind of edge you want when games tighten up and legs go. That’s my playground: cards, shots, tackles, anything where the market hasn’t quite caught up with how a team actually plays. The first knockout tie is already upon us, and it’s a fascinating clash of styles, so let’s get cracking.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
South Africa v Canada
World Cup Last-32, Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, USA, 9pm CET, Sunday 28th June
Prices: 5.60 South Africa, 3.75 Draw, 1.63 Canada
If you’d told me after South Africa’s opening disasterclass, dreadful keeping error, 2–0 loss, two red cards, absolute carnage, that they’d make the last‑32, I’d have laughed you out of the pub. They looked completely out of their depth against co‑hosts Mexico, and the discipline went with it. But credit where it’s due: Bafana Bafana steadied themselves, grabbed a deserved point against Czechia, then dug out a gritty 1–0 win over South Korea. They’ve earned their seat at the table the hard way, backs to the wall and bodies on the line.
Canada’s route has been more rollercoaster than roadmap. They obliterated Qatar 6–0 in game two and were basically through, but then tripped over Switzerland and dropped to second in the group. That sent them over the border to the USA for this clash in Los Angeles. The draw with Bosnia & Herzegovina, the Swiss defeat and the Qatar demolition have made it a proper mixed bag for the co‑hosts.
Losing key midfielder Ismaël Koné to that horrific injury in the Qatar game didn’t help and may have forced a tactical rethink, but even with that setback they still look the more complete side. Jonathan David is a class act, and captain Alphonso Davies being declared fit is a huge boost for them going into the knockouts.
The numbers tell you a lot about how this game is likely to play out. South Africa have had just 44% possession across their three matches, while Canada sit at 62%. That’s a big gap, and it points to Canada controlling the ball, probing, and forcing South Africa to defend for long spells. When a team spends that much time without the ball, especially one that’s already shown a tendency to lose their heads, the cards market starts to look very appealing.
South Africa’s disciplinary record is one of the worst at the tournament, largely thanks to those two red cards against Mexico, but it’s not just a one‑off. Teboho Mokoena is the poster boy for getting stuck in. He was booked in South Africa’s first two matches – after 33 and 17 minutes respectively – and missed the South Korea game as a result. Last season for Mamelodi Sundowns he picked up five yellow cards and one red in the South African Premiership, which tells you this isn’t a World Cup blip, it’s how he plays. He’s expected to come back into the side here, and with Canada likely to dominate possession, Mokoena is the first part of the staking plan in the cards market.
The next angle is South Africa right‑back Khuliso Mudau. He’s yet to be booked in this tournament, but he committed roughly a foul per game for Sundowns and collected eight bookings across the season. That profile, regular fouls, steady stream of cards, becomes a lot more interesting when you factor in the return of Alphonso Davies. The Canadian captain will be flying down the left, and Mudau simply won’t have faced that level of pace and direct running too often, having spent his career in the domestic league. It’s the kind of mismatch that leads to desperate tackles, late challenges and, more often than not, a trip into the referee’s notebook.
With Bet365’s extra‑time prop rules in play, both of these angles become even more attractive. If Canada control the game as expected and South Africa are forced into long spells of defending, the pressure on Mokoena and Mudau only increases as the minutes tick by. Two willing tacklers, one possession‑heavy opponent, and a knockout tie where there’s no tomorrow if you lose, it has all the ingredients for a spicy cards market.
So the plan for South Africa v Canada is simple: lean into Bafana Bafana’s tendency to get stuck in, back Mokoena and Mudau to feel the heat, and let Canada’s control of the ball do the rest.
Tip: Teboho Mokoena to be booked @ 2.85. 0.75 units; Khuliso Mudau to be booked @ 3.05. 0.75 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.