The first round of 32 game didn’t deliver from a punting perspective as a free-flowing game produced just one yellow card. Small stakes applied so no major damage done, and the week starts with a feast of action as Brazil take on Japan, Germany face Paraguay and potentially the game of the round in Netherlands v Morocco. There’s plenty of World Cup wagers to get our teeth stuck into as the tournament starts to whittle down.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Brazil v Japan
World Cup Last-32, Houston Stadium, Houston, USA, 7pm CET, Monday 29th June
Prices: 1.70 Brazil, 3.65 Draw, 5.00 Japan
Brazil’s group stage is one of those things people will try to read way too much into, but honestly… what did we actually learn? The wins over Haiti and Scotland looked comfortable enough on the scoresheet, but both were basically gifted by defensive calamities rather than any real Brazilian brilliance. The only proper barometer was Morocco, where Brazil scraped a 1–1 and spent long stretches, especially that first half, hanging on for dear life.
Japan will have watched that Morocco game on repeat, because it showed exactly how to unsettle this Brazil side. The Blue Samurai came through a tough group with Sweden and the Netherlands, scored seven goals, and looked razor‑sharp in transition. Their interplay around the box has been exceptional, and that’s exactly the sort of thing Brazil’s midfield and full‑backs hate dealing with. None of them have convinced, none of them move particularly well, and all of them can be dragged around.
This feels tight, and the price on Japan forcing extra time is hard to ignore. They’ve impressed everyone, they’re brave, and they’re absolutely capable of getting something inside 90. If Brazil do find a way through, it’s almost certainly Vinicius Junior dragging them there, four goals already from eight shots on target, so he’s the saver.
Tip: Draw or Japan @ 2.13. 0.75 units; Vinicius Junior to score anytime @ 2.48. 0.75 units.
Germany v Paraguay
World Cup Last-32, Boston Stadium, Foxborough, USA, 10.30pm CET, Monday 29th June
Prices: 1.32 Germany, 5.20 Draw, 9.00 Paraguay
Germany came out of the blocks flying. Curacao were dealt with exactly as expected, and the comeback win over a lively Ivory Coast side was the sort of result that makes you sit up and take notice. The Ecuador game? Bit of a curveball, sure, but context matters. Ecuador were under massive pressure to get a result, Germany had already done their job, and it showed.
Most people expect Germany to handle Paraguay without too much drama. Paraguay finished third in a group with the USA, Australia and Turkey, and they’ve offered next to nothing going forward. So instead of trying to overthink the match outcome, I’m zoning in on two German players who’ve been quietly excellent.
Felix Nmecha has been everywhere. He won eight tackles against Ivory Coast alone and sits on 12 for the tournament, proper all‑action stuff. Paraguay will sit deep, invite pressure and force Germany to recycle possession, which means Nmecha should have plenty of chances to hit at least two tackles. And with Germany joint‑top for shots on target after the group stage, plus Paraguay parked in a low block, Nmecha, who scored against Curacao, is absolutely live to try his luck again.
Then there’s Nathaniel Brown, one of the breakout performers for the Mannschaft. He’s been superb bombing on from left‑back, and he’s hit the target in both games he’s started. With Germany expected to dominate territory, he’s great value to make it three from three.
Tip: Felix Nmecha to make 2+ tackles & have 1+ shot on target @ 2.58. 0.75 units; Nathaniel Brown to have 1+ shot on target @ 2.75. 0.75 units
Netherlands v Morocco
World Cup Last-32, Monterrey Stadium, Guadalupe, Mexico, 3am CET, Tuesday 30th June
Prices: 2.23 Netherlands, 3.10 Draw, 3.45 Morocco
Netherlands and Morocco have been absolute goldmines for both teams to score so far – five of their six games have landed, and the matchup screams goals again.
The Dutch have been relentless. They finished the group stage joint‑top for shots on target alongside Germany, and the attack is properly delivering: Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey and Crysencio Summerville have all chipped in. They’re a menace from set pieces too, already scoring twice from dead balls. But for all their threat, they’re not exactly watertight, they somehow conceded against a hopeless Tunisia side, and twice let a lead slip against Japan. There’s always a moment of chaos in them.
Morocco bring plenty to the table as well. Ismael Saibari has been electric, three goals in three games, and he’s exactly the type of player who can punish the Dutch if they switch off. And while Morocco look solid on paper, they still conceded twice to Haiti in a game they absolutely needed something from. They can be got at.
Put it all together and this is a cracking matchup, two teams who attack well, have clear threats, and aren’t flawless at the back. Honestly, I’m surprised this is as big as it is.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.84. 1.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.