Yesterday was a good day for the World Cup wagers. The Ivory Coast v Norway game delivered exactly the goals I punted on, and Mbappé did Mbappé things, firing France to a comfortable 3–0 over Sweden. Only a limp, half‑hearted display from Ecuador stopped it being a golden sweep, but two winners out of three is enough to put a bit of swagger back in the step as we roll into another glorious World Cup day.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
England v DR Congo
World Cup Last-32, Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, USA, 6pm CET, Wednesday 1st July
Prices: 1.28 England, 5.00 Draw, 11.00 DR Congo
England are priced as if they almost cannot lose here, which feels generous given how much they struggled to break down Ghana and Panama in the group stage. A similarly stubborn opponent awaits them in Atlanta. DR Congo drew with Portugal and then pushed Colombia all the way in a narrow 1–0 defeat, so they are not the soft touch the market seems to think they are.
The Three Lions look short on creativity and my belief is that we will actually see the better of them the tougher the opponent. DR Congo were handed the blueprint by Ghana on how to frustrate England, but they carry far more danger on the counter with Yoane Wissa and Cedric Bakambu, and their back four all has Premier League experience. I have not got England right so far in this tournament, but I am pretty certain this will be another tough game.
With the lack of openings England have created so far, against inferior opponents to DR Congo, it may take another moment of magic from Jude Bellingham to unlock the door unless they produce a vastly improved display. The individual talent is there, but it might take a while for England to finally break through the Congolese resistance.
Tip: England to win, under 2.5 goals & Jude Bellingham to score or assist @ 4.17. 0.5 units.
Belgium v Senegal
World Cup Last-32, Seattle Stadium, Seattle USA, 10pm CET, Wednesday 1st July
Prices: 2.13 Belgium, 3.25 Draw, 3.55 Senegal
Belgium struggled through a weak group and only came out on top thanks to facing one of the poorest sides at the tournament in New Zealand in their final game. It was hardly convincing. Senegal, on the other hand, had bright spells in both their opening matches against France and Norway, who have already booked their places in the last sixteen, and the Lions of Teranga are now bidding to make it three from three out of that group of death.
Belgium are clearly not the team of old. They drew with two pretty uninspiring sides in Iran and Egypt, and now they run into a Senegal team who thumped Iraq 5–0 last time out and will be full of confidence. They also overcame Morocco, on the field at least, in the AFCON final back in January, so they’ve shown repeatedly that they have the tools to beat an overrated and over‑the‑hill Belgium side.
Lamine Camara looks destined for a big move sooner rather than later, Ismaïla Sarr already has three goals, and Sadio Mané still carries that threat where one moment can flip a game. Add Iliman Ndiaye, Ibrahim Mbaye and Nicolas Jackson into the mix and you’ve got a top, top side, as Henri Camara told For Foot Sake just a week or so ago.
The days of Belgium leaning on Toby Alderweireld, Vincent Kompany and Jan Vertonghen at the back are long gone, and I think the Red Devils will have real trouble dealing with the Lions here. Odds‑against on Senegal to qualify looks too big.
Tip: Senegal to qualify @ 2.35. 1 unit.
USA v Bosnia & Herzegovina
World Cup Last-32, San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, USA, 2am CET, Thursday 2nd July
Prices: 1.38 USA, 4.80 Draw, 7.60 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Co‑hosts USA got a nice boost the day before yesterday when Paraguay squeezed past Germany, because it made that opening‑day 4–1 win over the South Americans look even stronger. With Belgium or Senegal awaiting in the next round, this is a real opportunity for the Stars and Stripes to make a proper run on home soil.
They scored eight goals in the group stage and only lost to Turkey thanks to a last‑minute strike with an understrength side. Bosnia were the third‑placed team in a weak group and, while they showed plenty of discipline in the play‑offs by winning twice on penalties, this is a different level of challenge. The USA have already beaten better teams than Bosnia by two‑goal margins in their opening two matches, and with Mauricio Pochettino’s guidance, they should have too much again here.
Tip: USA -1.5 Asian handicap @ 2.08. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.