Another day of World Cup wagers, another day where a bet managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. How Senegal contrived to miss out on the last‑16 I’ll never know, but what I do know is I’ll be taking on Belgium at any opportunity for the rest of this tournament. Senegal were the better side and only a total brain fade in the final five minutes stopped them going through. Ten‑man USA did get me the two‑goal win I needed though, so no major damage done as we roll into week four of this monster.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Spain v Austria
World Cup Last-32, Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, USA, 9pm CET, Thursday 2nd July
Prices: 1.32 Spain, 5.00 Draw, 9.00 Austria
My main antepost was Spain to win the whole thing, and to say I’ve lost confidence is an understatement. They kept Uruguay at bay, but a 1‑0 against a side that poor isn’t what you want when you’re measuring them against France or Argentina. Still, they topped the group, so the tournament starts here. Austria are functional under Rangnick, but they nearly blew it against Algeria, conceding in injury time before an absurd equaliser with the last kick. I’m hoping Spain take the handbrake off, and if they do, Pedri is the one who can benefit. He’s been neat and tidy so far, but yet to explode. Sooner or later he will, and this could be the night.
Tip: Spain to win & Pedri to score or assist @ 3.49. 0.75 units.
Portugal v Croatia
World Cup Last-32, Toronto Stadium, Toronto, Canada, 1am CET, Friday 3rd July
Prices: 1.74 Portugal, 3.90 Draw, 4.70 Croatia
Either I was watching a different game, or Rafael Leão simply has to start for Portugal after what he did against Colombia. He had 18 touches in his 20‑minute cameo compared to João Félix’s 33 in the previous 70, and every time he picked up the ball the entire tempo of the match changed. His pace was electric, he carried the ball with purpose, and unlike Pedro Neto on the opposite flank, Leão actually looked like he knew how to play with Cristiano Ronaldo.
He’s the wildcard who can alter the course of this tie. If, for some inexplicable reason, he doesn’t start, you’ll get your money back anyway. My antepost on Portugal doesn’t inspire much confidence now, but they didn’t win a single game in 90 minutes on their way to EURO 2016 glory, so you never quite know with them. Croatia haven’t impressed me either, so I’m betting with what I saw in Portugal’s last outing: Leão looked like the one player capable of ripping a game open.
Tip: Rafael Leao to score anytime @ 3.40. 0.75 units; Rafael Leao to assist @ 4.70. 0.75 units. Rafael Leao to score & assist @ 16.61. 0.25 units.
Switzerland v Algeria
World Cup Last-32, BC Place, Vancouver, Canada, 5am CET, Friday 3rd July
Prices: 2.02 Switzerland, 3.20 Draw, 3.95 Algeria
An intriguing match‑up to close the day, with a last‑16 tie against Colombia or Ghana on the line. Algeria were on the receiving end of a Messi masterclass, scraped past a poor Jordan side, then played out that chaotic 3–3 with Austria where both teams were happy enough with a draw. It’s not the kind of form that fills me with confidence.
Switzerland, on the other hand, drew 1–1 with Qatar, dismantled Bosnia & Herzegovina, and then beat Canada comfortably to win their group. They’ve got experience throughout the side and genuine attacking threat in Johan Manzambi and Breel Embolo in particular. I think they’ll find a way past Algeria in the 90.
Tip: Switzerland to win @ 2.02. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.