Wow. What a game we’ve just witnessed at the Azteca. Mexico v England will go down as one of the greatest World Cup matches ever played. A red card, two penalties, five goals, a referee who seemed desperate to make himself the headline act, and the most electric stadium atmosphere on the planet. It had everything. England march on, Mexico bow out, and honestly neither side deserved to lose in that cauldron.
And Brazil v Norway wasn’t far behind. With ten minutes left my bet was stone dead, but then Erling Haaland, the big bossman himself, rattled in two goals before a ludicrous 97th‑minute penalty dragged me over the line on both teams to score. This tournament is chaos, pure and simple, and it’s glorious.
But tomorrow? Tomorrow is chaos of a different kind. Portugal v Spain has all the ingredients to be a classic, but FIFA have decided to turn the World Cup into a circus. Suspending Folarin Balogun’s suspension because the President of the United States picked up the phone?
That’s not football, that’s politics. And it stinks. I didn’t think it was a red card in the first place, but you can’t have the governing body of the sport bending the rules at the whim of a head of state. Every nation that’s ever had a harsh red card will feel aggrieved, and rightly so. This is the straw that breaks the camel’s back for many, another reminder that Gianni Infantino has become a blight on what should be a mesmerizing tournament.
Still, we’ll have a proper preview of one game tonight, and it promises to be an absolute belter. The football is saving the World Cup, even as FIFA tries its best to ruin it.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Portugal v Spain
World Cup Last-16, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 9pm CET, Monday 6th July
Prices: 4.10 Portugal, 3.45 Draw, 1.90 Spain
It’s one of the games of the tournament in Monday’s early kick‑off, and it’s the For Foot Sake tips derby, my antepost picks going head‑to‑head, and by full‑time I’ll be down to two horses left in the race. Spain have quietly gone about their business so far, yet to concede a goal, and after the shock of that Cape Verde stalemate they’ve settled into exactly the kind of threat we expected.
Portugal, meanwhile, still haven’t quite come to the boil, but they somehow dragged themselves past Croatia in one of the wildest last‑32 ties we’ve seen. Ronaldo keeps taking flak, but he’s sitting on three goals and still demands every defender’s attention. Say what you want, he’s still operating at a level most players can only dream of.
Given what I’ve already said about USA v Belgium, this is going to be a bumper tipping article. We’re throwing darts and seeing what sticks. First things first: I don’t see the goalfest everyone else seems to be salivating over. Spain’s defence has been immaculate, Portugal’s attack hasn’t clicked, and Spain’s hasn’t exactly been free‑flowing either. They put three past an ordinary Austria, but only managed one against a dreadful Uruguay and none against Cape Verde. They hammered Saudi Arabia, sure, but this is their toughest test yet, and they’ll need every ounce of patience to break down Ronaldo & co.
In the Austria win, two of Spain’s goals came from Marc Cucurella deliveries, and with Portugal’s right flank being the weaker of the two, he could easily find joy again. Spain have been happy to funnel play wide all tournament, so Cucurella to assist is the first prop on the slip. I’m also in dire need of a Bruno Fernandes goal to land his match bet with Florian Wirtz, but we’ll leave that one off the official card before I jinx it.
Finally, purely on price, Spain to win to nil at over 2/1 is too big to ignore. They’re yet to concede, they control games better than anyone left in the tournament, and if they get their noses in front they suffocate you. I’m nibbling that and hoping a couple of these land to keep the winners flowing.
And then, of course, there’s Rafael Leão. After coming agonisingly close to the motherload in Portugal v Croatia, I can’t leave him out. If Portugal do score, and that’s a big if, he’s the one I trust to be involved. At almost 2/1 to score or assist, it’s simply too big for a player who remains Portugal’s most dangerous wildcard.
Tips: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.96. 1 unit; Spain to win to nil @ 3.25. 0.75 units; Marc Cucurella to assist @ 6.60. 0.5 units. Rafael Leao to score or assist @ 2.70. 0.75 units
USA v Belgium
World Cup Last-16, Seattle Stadium, Seattle, USA, 2am CET, Tuesday 7th July
Prices: 2.60 USA, 3.40 Draw, 2.65 Belgium
For Foot Sake will not be sharing tips on this game following the ‘suspension’ of Folarin Balogun’s suspension. This is clear evidence of FIFA corruption, and once the integrity of a match has been compromised at that level, no fair or honest betting judgement can be made in good conscience. Out of respect for our readers, we won’t be tipping a fixture that’s already been warped before a ball has even been kicked.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.