The quarter finals kicked off with France brushing aside Morocco, exactly as tipped in this column, and Kylian Mbappé stretching his legs in the Golden Boot race. That battle is only getting tastier: Kane, Haaland, Messi, and tonight’s headline act Mikel Oyarzabal all take centre stage over the next 48 hours. Another cracking tie awaits, so let’s dive into the markets and see where the value sits in my Spain v Belgium wagers.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Spain v Belgium
World Cup Quarter Final, Los Angeles Stadium, Los Angeles, USA, 9pm CET, Friday 10th July
Prices: 1.62 Spain, 3.95 Draw, 5.20 Belgium
It’s the first of two all‑European quarter finals and it promises to be another high‑quality affair. Spain are yet to concede at this tournament, and their performances have sharpened with every passing game. They barely allowed Portugal a sniff last time out before a well‑crafted move resulted in Mikel Merino scoring the deciding goal as the clock ticked past the 90‑minute mark.
Belgium will be buoyed by their highly impressive win over the USA, but before that I was very keen to oppose them and thought they were extremely fortunate to get past Senegal in the last‑32. Injustice is one of the strongest motivators in sport, if not the strongest, and that, coupled with a couple of US‑wrapped gifts, were the keys to that 4–1 thumping.
The Folarin Balogun affair destabilised their opponents, and it was clearly on the Red Devils’ minds too given the way they celebrated that win. It was probably a mix of frustration and desperation that led Rudi Garcia to drop Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku, but it worked a treat after a disjointed group stage and that fortunate win over Senegal.
Spain don’t play the memorable tiki‑taka football of old, but this edition of their team is a mightily impressive unit, closing in on an international record for unbeaten games. I tipped them at the start of this tournament and after the group stage there wasn’t much confidence, but I’m now starting to believe again.
They are so solid at the back. Unai Simón is showing why Luis de la Fuente kept faith with him despite calls to replace him with David Raya, Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte have been flawless, and Rodri is getting back to his best after an injury‑plagued couple of years since he won the Ballon d’Or. He’s completed more passes than anyone at the tournament, and that’s having played a game less than France and Morocco who met earlier. Lamine Yamal has yet to hit top gear, but Mikel Oyarzabal is sticking two fingers up to the doubters who said the Spanish lack a striker.
Belgium simply won’t get the openings they did against the US, coming up against the World Cup’s best defence, while their own backline, despite Thibaut Courtois’ continued excellence, doesn’t have the quality or experience to keep Spain out. Portugal, who man‑for‑man are a superior team in my view, nearly pulled it off, but Spain will find it easier to break through here, and I see another clinical, professional win coming their way.
Given we’re in form, why not also throw in a props bet? One that I like the look of is Alex Baena to have some involvement in a goal, and there are plenty of firms paying above even money, which I think is a cracking price. Baena has 0.28 xA per match, a shot on target per game, the most goal involvements to minutes played of any Spain player, and 2.6 chances created per 90 at this tournament. In other words, he’s a stat monster.
Baena has been one of the unsung heroes for Spain so far and his general play is impressive too. While he is a minutes risk with Nico Williams bordering on match fitness, play this with a bookie that offers the brilliant ‘sub plays on’ plus extra time counts promos (Bet365), and it looks a sharp chance.
Tip: Spain to win & under 2.5 goals @ 3.80. 0.75 units; Alex Baena to score or assist @ 1.95. 0.75 units
Check out For Foot Sake’s Alternative Team of the World Cup here.