What a feast we’ve got today: the World Champions, the greatest footballer of all time, and an underdog with enough talent to make this genuinely awkward. I’m not quite as giddy about the punting as I am for Norway v England, but there are still some very tempting angles here, and a neat little path to profit with my Argentina v Switzerland wagers and what promises to be a fascinating match‑up.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Argentina v Switzerland
World Cup Quarter Final, Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, USA, 3am CET, Sunday 12th July
Prices: 1.69 Argentina, 3.50 Draw, 5.40 Switzerland
Will we get another Argentine epic? I hope so. Given I’m already bracing for a long night in Miami with Haaland v Kane, I’d happily take another footballing marathon here (it helps my Spain and Norway anteposts), and I think we might just get it. Team news first: Johan Manzambi is all but ruled out for Switzerland, but Rubén Vargas is fit and expected to start, a huge boost for their hopes of upsetting the champions.
Argentina will have their backers, but the only way I see them getting this done inside 90 minutes is another rabbit out of the hat from Lionel Messi, who must be absolutely shattered. He played 120 minutes in the brutal Miami heat against Cape Verde, then had to drag his side through against Egypt when they were 2–0 down with ten to play. Lautaro Martínez still hasn’t scored from open play, Julián Álvarez looks a shadow of his Atlético Madrid self, and the supporting cast simply haven’t delivered for Lionel Scaloni.
Switzerland, on the other hand, are stacked with seasoned operators: Xhaka, Freuler, Akanji, Rodríguez, Zakaria, proper game‑management ninjas. They won’t break forward with the chaos Egypt brought, but they’re tactically astute and pick their moments with intelligence. That’s a problem for an Argentine defence that has conceded five goals in its last three games, to Egypt, Cape Verde and Jordan. Switzerland are a level above that, and they only gave up two big chances against Colombia in their 0–0 last‑16 draw. They didn’t create much themselves, but Vargas’ return changes their threat profile, and I’ve got an angle that fits the whole picture.
Argentina have flirted with danger twice now, and they’re running into a Swiss side with history in their sights. The champs look fatigued, physically, emotionally, spiritually, and Messi has had to carry them through both matches. He exploded late against Egypt, but before that he barely influenced the game. Yet he’s still had a ridiculous 18 shots on target at this World Cup, with the next best Argentine (Enzo Fernández) on three. Three! It tells you everything: Argentina’s attack is Messi or bust.
And that’s the crux of this betting plan. If Argentina win, they do it in 90 minutes, and they do it because Messi produces something outrageous again. If this goes long, extra time, penalties, the whole Kansas City carnival, Switzerland are absolutely live. They’re fresher, calmer, better organised, and far less reliant on one man’s lungs holding out.
So I’m attacking this from two angles: Switzerland to qualify at a big price, and Argentina to win in 90 with Messi dragging them over the line. Two paths, one logic. Make sense?!
Tip: Switzerland to qualify @ 3.25. 1 unit; Argentina to win & Lionel Messi to score or assist @ 2.14. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.