The first tipping article on For Foot Sake is a UFC 329 betting preview, and there was never going to be a more fitting moment to start than the return of Conor McGregor at UFC 329. Whatever else is on the card, whatever narratives are floating around fight week, this is the reason everyone is buying the pay‑per‑view. McGregor’s comeback is the gravitational centre of the event, and it’s what I’m here to write about, but it’s far from the only fight worth getting excited about.
I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing Gable Steveson make his UFC debut, and I think he wins it by knockout. The Olympic pedigree, the raw athleticism, the way he’s been talking about his transition — it all points to a violent introduction to the roster. He’s green, sure, but he’s dangerous, and this matchup feels designed to showcase exactly that.
Then there’s Benoit Saint‑Denis, who has quietly rebuilt himself into one of the most explosive operators in the division. Since his defeats to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano in 2024, he’s gone back to the drawing board and come out looking like a completely different fighter. Kyle Prepolec, Mauricio Ruffy, Beneil Dariush, Dan Hooker, all dispatched, all violently, all with the kind of momentum that makes you sit up and take notice.
This fight with Paddy Pimblett should be chaos. Pimblett’s route to victory is on the mat via submission; he won’t want another firefight like the one he got dragged into against Justin Gaethje. Saint‑Denis’ power is frightening, and at the prices, the Frenchman looks the value side either by KO or decision. A win here puts him right in the title‑shot conversation.
And then we arrive at the main event…
Conor McGregor v Max Holloway
UFC Welterweight Bout, T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA, 5.30am CET, Sunday 12th July
General prices: 2.95 McGregor, 1.40 Holloway (boosted to 1.52 on Stake.com)
Max Holloway enters UFC 329 as the rightful favourite, and the case for him beating Conor McGregor is stronger than both the narrative and the current market suggest. Their 2013 meeting is ancient history; the rematch is built on completely different foundations. Holloway has become one of the most reliable, high‑output fighters in UFC history, while McGregor arrives carrying more uncertainty than at any point in his career. When you line up the data, the activity, the conditioning profile and the stylistic trends, the argument leans heavily toward “Blessed”.
The first pillar is activity. McGregor has not fought in five years, returning from a broken leg and a prolonged layoff that analysts repeatedly flag as a major unknown. Holloway, meanwhile, has fought twice already this year, including another five‑rounder that sharpened his timing, conditioning and durability. In a sport where rhythm matters, Holloway is operating at full speed while McGregor is effectively restarting the engine.
Cardio is the second decisive factor. Holloway’s conditioning advantage is enormous. Independent analytics rate Holloway’s cardio at 65/100 versus McGregor’s 47/100, and Holloway averages 16:23 of fight time compared to McGregor’s 8:02. Holloway’s output spikes in championship rounds, landing an average of 53.5 significant strikes in Round 4, while McGregor has almost no verified late‑round data at this stage of his career. In a five‑round welterweight bout, that gap is not just relevant, it’s potentially fight‑defining.
Stylistically, Holloway’s volume is a nightmare for a fighter returning from a long hiatus. He lands 7.2 significant strikes per minute, a 35% advantage over McGregor, and his defensive metrics, including 83% takedown defence, ensure he can keep the fight exactly where he wants it. McGregor still carries first‑round knockout threat, but even fellow fighters like Belal Muhammad have suggested his cardio may be further compromised by added muscle at 170 pounds.
This is why the boosted 1.52 on Stake looks like incredible value. If the market continues to move the way it has all week, Holloway could easily start the event closer to 1.30, which is far more reflective of the underlying matchup. The price is simply ahead of the public narrative.
With superior volume, proven five‑round cardio, and far greater recent activity, Holloway has every tool to overwhelm McGregor down the stretch, and the market is only just catching up.
Tip: Max Holloway to win @ 1.52. 5 units.
Multi: Gable Steveson to beat Elisha Ellison by KO, TKO or DQ, Benoit Saint-Denis to beat Paddy Pimblett by KO,TKO or Decision, Max Holloway to beat Conor McGregor @ 4.50. 1 unit.
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