Two title fights, a heavy underdog with genuine momentum, and a champion trying to make history. In this UFC 330 betting preview I look at a mouth watering event in Philadelphia, how it has all the ingredients of a classic, and at the man at the top of the card trying to prove that his move up to welterweight was no fluke.
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Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
UFC Welterweight Title Bout, Philadelphia, USA, 5.30am CET, Sunday 16th August
Prices: 1.23 Islam Makhachev, 4.05 Ian Machado Garry
Islam Makhachev goes into UFC 330 as one of the most dominant champions the sport has ever produced, riding a 16-fight win streak that ties him with Anderson Silva for the longest in UFC history. He arrives having taken the welterweight title from Jack Della Maddalena in November, a performance built almost entirely on control: over 19 minutes of top position across five rounds, submissions threatened throughout, and a scorecard that read 50-45 on every card. It was as close to a clinic as this division has seen.
The temptation is to assume more of the same against Ian Machado Garry. I don’t think it’s that simple.
Garry’s only loss in eighteen professional fights came against Shavkat Rakhmonov, and even that tells you more about his durability than his vulnerability. Rakhmonov, one of the most feared grapplers in the sport, managed just two takedowns from ten attempts across five rounds and still needed a split verdict of sorts to get home. Garry has never been finished, and he’s built his career on making dangerous men work for every inch.
What’s happened since is arguably more relevant than the Rakhmonov fight itself. In his very next outing, Garry beat former champion Belal Muhammad, a committed wrestler in his own right, and stuffed all seven of Muhammad’s takedown attempts over three rounds. That’s not one good night of takedown defence against a specific stylistic puzzle; that’s a pattern.
Before that, he outpointed Carlos Prates across five rounds, surviving a hairy final round to get the job done. Prates has since gone on to brutalise Della Maddalena, Makhachev’s own last opponent, with a third-round TKO so one-sided it instantly repositioned him as a title contender. Garry has already solved a puzzle that has since wrecked the champion’s most recent victim. That doesn’t guarantee anything against a fighter of Makhachev’s calibre, but it’s a firmer form line than the layman narrative around this fight suggests.
None of this is to say Garry wins. Makhachev remains the best grappler Garry will have faced, by some distance, and the champion has a habit of finding a way to the mat against opponents who are supposed to be able to keep the fight standing. But Garry’s length, his 74-inch reach, his footwork and his proven ability to survive adversity across twenty-five minutes all point to this going the distance rather than ending early. The market agrees: Makhachev by decision is priced closer to Garry’s moneyline than his knockout or submission routes, suggesting oddsmakers see this as more grind than blowout.
I think Makhachev’s superior positional control and volume from top position get him there on the scorecards, but Garry’s chin, cardio and takedown defence make this a five-round examination rather than a formality. Backing the champion to win, and specifically to do it on the cards, looks like the smarter way into this fight than laying the short favourite price outright.
Tip: Islam Makhachev to win by decision @ 2.30. 2 units.
Check out For Foot Sake’s MMA tipping record here.