Pre‑season hasn’t been about the football, it’s been about the chaos around it. Big‑money moves, surprise exits, managers shuffling like a deck of cards, and half the league trying to reinvent itself before a ball is kicked. After a strong 2025/26, I’m heading into the new campaign with the same sharp eye and a fresh appetite to attack the bookmakers. The markets are guessing, the clubs are scrambling, and that’s exactly when the value appears. Let’s get stuck into the new campaign, some Premier League tips and a new assault on the layers!
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Nottingham Forest v Leeds
Premier League, City Ground, Nottingham, UK, 4pm CET, Saturday 22nd August
Prices: 2.29 Nottingham Forest, 3.34 Draw, 3.15 Leeds
This fixture has goals written all over it. Leeds have made genuinely positive changes over the summer, adding players who lift their tempo and creativity, Harry Wilson gives them a proper spark in wide areas, James Trafford is a keeper who suits a more front‑foot style, and Tarik Muharemović adds composure at the back that lets them push higher. They were entertaining last season and everything they’ve done points to that continuing.
Forest, meanwhile, may have lost Elliot Anderson, but keeping Morgan Gibbs‑White was massive, and under Oliver Glasner they’re only going to play more aggressively. Glasner’s sides don’t sit in, they press, they combine, they take risks.
With both teams trending towards more proactive football, this game is screaming goals. I’m genuinely surprised to see the layers leaning towards the unders here.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92. 1 unit.
Brentford v Tottenham
Premier League, Gtech Community Stadium, London, UK, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 22nd August
Prices: 2.43 Brentford, 3.56 Draw, 2.77 Tottenham
Tottenham come into this season with a clear intention: bury the demons of the last couple of campaigns and start behaving like a serious side again. Their new £200m midfield should be ready to fire from day one, especially with both Matheus Fernandes and Sandro Tonali avoiding the World Cup and getting a full pre‑season under their belt.
James Maddison being back fit is a huge boost, and defensively they’ve added real substance, Jan Paul van Hecke, Marcos Senesi, and Andy Robertson give them structure, experience, and leadership they’ve badly lacked. They still look a touch light in attack, which explains the pursuit of Savinho and Omar Marmoush, but they should have enough control and stability to avoid defeat here.
Brentford haven’t lost any of their key players for once, but with the price sitting above evens, Tottenham draw no bet is the sensible play.
Tip: Tottenham Draw No Bet @ 2.10. 1 unit.
Newcastle v Liverpool
Premier League, St James’ Park, Newcastle, UK, 5.30pm CET, Sunday 23rd August
Prices: 3.68 Newcastle, 3.90 Draw, 1.90 Liverpool
Newcastle go into this season with the heart of their side ripped out and a new manager trying to stamp authority at one of the most intense home grounds in the league. They’re a side I’m happy to lay early doors, no matter who they play.
St James’ Park will be bouncing, but that doesn’t change the fact they’re in transition and still figuring out their new identity.
Liverpool, even without Mo Salah, look far more settled and structurally ready to start fast. Florian Wirtz is the one I’m expecting a big campaign from; he gives them creativity and end product in the final third, and this is exactly the sort of fixture where he can announce himself. If Liverpool are serious about challenging for the title again, they need to go into hostile environments like this and take three points. I think they’re equipped to do it.
Tip: Liverpool to win @ 1.90. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.