I’ve just rolled back into town after a few days in Albufeira, sun on my back, sand between my toes, and absolutely no punting to distract me. Lovely place, good weather, good beaches… but after a torrid start to the campaign, the break wasn’t about cocktails or coasting. It was about clearing the head.
And truth be told, just before I flew out, there were a few green shoots. A couple of calls that hinted I might finally be dragging myself out of the mud.
Now I’m back. Fresh legs, fresh focus, and no excuses. Time to pick up where those signs of life left off and start putting this season right.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
South Melbourne v Melbourne Victory
Australia Cup Final, AAMI Park, Melbourne, Australia, 10.35am CET, Saturday 10th October
Prices: 4.00 South Melbourne, 3.80 Draw, 1.73 Melbourne Victory
I love a good cup run, and you won’t find a better story anywhere in Australia right now than South Melbourne. An NPL side marching all the way to the final, crossing town to AAMI Park with half their suburb behind them, it’s brilliant. Proper old‑school romance. You can feel how much it means to them, and you can feel how much the neutral punter wants the fairy tale to keep going.
But once you get past the sentiment, you have to deal with the reality.
Victory are “at home”, in their own stadium, in their own dressing room, in surroundings they know inside out. They’re the A‑League side, the full‑time outfit, and they’ve been on the road in every round of the Cup so far. Now they finally get to play this thing on their patch.
And look at the levels of opposition. Victory had to get past Sydney FC in the semi‑final, a proper test, proper intensity. South Melbourne haven’t faced anything close to that calibre this season. The last time they did, in this competition last year, Auckland FC put three past them without breaking stride.
It’s an amazing story, it’ll be a cracking spectacle on Saturday morning, and I genuinely hope South Melbourne enjoy every second of it. But from a betting point of view, there’s only one option here, and I can’t believe the prices are what they are.
Tip: Melbourne Victory to win in 90 mins @ 1.73. 1 unit.
Arsenal v Leeds
Premier League, Emirates Stadium, London, UK, 1.30pm CET, Saturday 10th October
Prices: 1.36 Arsenal, 5.10 Draw, 8.25 Leeds
This has all the ingredients to be a cracking watch. Leeds have been one of the most entertaining sides in the league so far, fearless, energetic, and absolutely committed to playing on the front foot. But as much fun as they’ve been, this might not be the matchup that suits them. Arsenal at the Emirates can suffocate you, stretch you, and punish every loose touch, and Leeds’ bravery can sometimes spill over into naivety against the very top sides.
There’s one angle I’ve had circled ever since Kai Havertz limped off for Germany: Viktor Gyökeres. He hasn’t had a huge amount of game time this season, but he spent the entire international break reminding everyone exactly what he is. Four games for Sweden, four goals. He’s come back absolutely ravenous.
And the Emirates is where he did most of his damage last season. He scored home and away against Leeds, including a brace in this very fixture, and there’s every chance he’s on penalties again once starting. Stylistically, this is the kind of game where Arsenal could unleash a bit of a backlash, and Gyökeres feels like the one who could be at the heart of it.
So with the Swede fit, firing, and finally getting a clear lane to start, I’m taking him to find the net.
Tip: Viktor Gyökeres to score anytime @ 2.30. 1 unit.
Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest
Premier League, Selhurst Park, London, UK, 3pm CET, Sunday 11th October
Prices: 2.65 Crystal Palace, 3.30 Draw, 2.65 Nottingam Forest
Forest v Palace is one of those fixtures that doesn’t scream headline value, but the more I’ve looked at it this week, the more interesting it’s become.
Palace are in a really awkward spot squad‑wise. They’ve been carrying knocks for weeks and the international break didn’t magically fix anything. Jean‑Philippe Mateta is still battling a hamstring issue, Dean Henderson hasn’t been right with his ankle, Chadi Riad is out with a knee problem, and Ismaïla Sarr has been dealing with a groin injury. Add in doubts around Anan Khalaili and Takehiro Tomiyasu, and suddenly you’re looking at a side missing pieces all over the pitch, depth, pace, physicality, even leadership.
And this is exactly the kind of situation where Forest can be dangerous. Their best football this season has come away from home. They look freer, more organised, and more willing to trust the structure Oliver Glasner is trying to build. You can see the adjustment happening week by week, the press is cleaner, the transitions sharper, and the whole thing feels a bit more coherent than it did in August.
Glasner also knows this Palace team inside out. He’s seen them up close, he understands their patterns, and he’ll know exactly where the gaps are if those injuries force Pierre Sage into patchwork solutions. It’s not a slam‑dunk fixture, and I’m not pretending Forest are suddenly a model of consistency. But at the prices, with Palace limping and Forest trending upwards, this one has started to smell like value.
So I’m taking a swing, Forest for me.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to win @ 2.65. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.