I finally felt a bit of life in midweek. PSG did the business, Atletico followed them in, and for the first time this season I actually walked away from a Champions League night with a bit of profit in my pocket. Nothing earth‑shattering, nothing to retire on, but enough to load the cannon for the weekend and remind myself I do still know what I’m doing.
It’s been a slow, sticky start to the campaign, no point pretending otherwise, but that little confidence boost in Europe might be exactly what I needed. A couple of winners, a bit of momentum, and suddenly the board looks a lot more inviting.
I’m hoping that midweek spark is the start of a run. The bookies have had their fun. Time to swing back with my weekend football tips.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Auckland FC v Melbourne City
A-League, Go Media Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand, 6am CET, Saturday 17th October
Prices: 2.47 Auckland FC, 3.30 Draw, 2.75 Melbourne City
The A‑League is back this weekend, and that means one of my favourite angles in all of sports betting is back with it: Australian sides travelling to New Zealand for early kick‑offs. It’s a spot I’ve leant on for years, and the first chance to use it this season comes with Auckland FC hosting Melbourne City.
Auckland are the defending champions after lifting the A‑League Final last season, and they’ve kept hold of their main man, Sam Cosgrave, which is massive. They won this exact fixture 3–0 last year, and even in their most recent competitive outing, a 1–0 defeat to a star‑studded Al Ahli in the FIFA Intercontinental Cup, they looked organised, disciplined, and hard to break down. They’re a proper side.
City have retooled nicely for the new campaign. Emiliano Marcondes and Matheus Rossetto add creativity and control, and with Awer Mabil and Matthew Leckie still flying the flag for the Socceroos, there’s plenty of quality in that squad. But this is a brutal assignment for an opening weekend. Early kick‑off, long travel, hostile crowd, champions on their own patch, it’s a lot to deal with straight out of the gate.
And at the price, I can’t ignore Auckland. They’re settled, they’re confident, and they’re at home in a spot I love backing them.
I’m taking the champions to start their title defence with a win.
Tip: Auckland FC to win @ 2.47. 0.75 units.
Brentford v Liverpool
Premier League, Gtech Community Stadium, London, UK, 4pm CET, Saturday 17th October
Prices: 2.32 Brentford, 3.65 Draw, 2.80 Liverpool
Brentford v Liverpool is one of those fixtures where the market looks at the badge rather than the reality. Liverpool are rarely outsiders, but this weekend they absolutely deserve to be — because they’re walking into the Gtech with a squad held together by tape.
Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo are all carrying knocks and remain big doubts after missing the last two matches. Ryan Gravenberch is suspended after his red card against Manchester City. Yahoo SportsYahoo Sports. Liverpool: Andoni Iraola offers hope over major triple injury boost in new update And while Iraola hasn’t ruled out late fitness miracles, the tone of every update has been cautious at best. Liverpool’s attack has been patched up, their midfield is thin, and their rhythm has been all over the place domestically.
Brentford, meanwhile, are flying. Fourth in the table, unbeaten, and showing even more improvement under Keith Andrews, the structure is solid, the press is sharp, and the Gtech is bouncing every time they play there.
Liverpool have been pure Jekyll and Hyde in the league so far. One good performance, one bad one, one chaotic one, no consistency, no stability, and now no key players. Brentford are the exact opposite: settled, confident, and fully stocked.
It’s not often you get the chance to back Brentford against a depleted Liverpool side at a price worth taking, but this is one of those moments. Form, fitness, momentum, all of it points the same way.
I’m having a tickle on Brentford to win.
Tip: Brentford to win @ 2.32. 0.5 units.
Fulham v Hull
Premier League, Craven Cottage, London, UK, 4pm CET, Saturday 17th October
Prices: 1.70 Fulham, 3.95 Draw, 4.60 Hull
This is one of those fixtures where the mood around the home side tells you almost everything you need to know. Six matches in, no wins, and the knives are already out for Alvaro Arbeloa. The performances have been flat, the atmosphere has been tense, and you can feel the anxiety every time they go a goal down. It’s not a happy camp.
Hull, on the other hand, have started the season like a team who didn’t get the memo. Pre‑season favourites for 20th place, written off before a ball was kicked, and they’ve made a complete mockery of it. They’re organised, confident, and playing with a freedom that Fulham simply don’t have right now.
Fulham’s biggest problem is at the back. Seven goals conceded in their first three home matches tells its own story. Ipswich put them away last time out, and every time they’re asked to defend under pressure, they look brittle. Hull will fancy this.
And they’ve travelled well too. A win at Coventry, a draw at Chelsea, they’re not scared of going on the road, and they’re not scared of teams who think they should beat them. They’re a live threat in this spot.
With Fulham teetering and Hull punching above their weight, the Draw No Bet angle becomes very tempting. It gives you protection if Fulham scrape something, but keeps you fully onside with a Hull team who look far more settled, far more confident, and far more likely to take advantage of the chaos in London.
Tip: Hull Draw No Bet @ 3.25. 0.5 units.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory
A-League, Hnry Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand, 4am CET, Sunday 18th October
Prices: 3.05 Wellington Phoenix, 3.65 Draw, 2.11 Melbourne Victory
is the second early Kiwi kick‑off of the weekend, and if you know me, you know how much I pay attention to these. If Auckland v City is a tough assignment for the visitors, this one is even worse. An early start in the capital, long travel, different rhythm, it’s never the kindest way to open a domestic campaign.
Victory did at least steady themselves in midweek. After that horrendous Australian Cup Final defeat to South Melbourne, they bounced back with a really impressive 3–0 win over FC Seoul. They looked sharper, more confident, and more like the side they’re supposed to be. But cup football at home and an early‑doors league match in Wellington are two very different beasts.
The Phoenix are always lively in these spots. They’re comfortable in the conditions, they’re used to the schedule, and they tend to start fast when Aussie sides come over early. I’m not saying pile in, you have to tread carefully with odds like these, but I can’t let Wellington Phoenix go unbacked. This is exactly the kind of fixture where they catch teams cold.
Tip: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 3.05. 0.75 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.