I am back. Well and truly back.
Last weekend felt like Tommy the Punter at his best. It started beautifully when the Melbourne Derby played out exactly as expected in a 1-1 draw, before Bournemouth rolled over a feeble Manchester United side for one of the easiest winners I’ve had all season. Winners at 3.50 and 3.35 aren’t to be sniffed at, and more importantly, they nudged us into profit for the 2026/27 campaign.
Now, before everyone starts calling me a genius, let’s remember it’s a long season and I’ve dug myself out of enough holes to know how quickly things can change. But confidence is a funny thing. A few results go your way, the board starts looking clearer, and suddenly those little angles you’ve been spotting begin to carry a bit more conviction.
I’m keeping things selective this weekend. Just the two picks. No need to force the issue when the form is there. Quality over quantity, and if the drumbeat keeps going, we’ll all be smiling come Sunday morning.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga, Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 31st October
Prices: 1.30 Bayern Munich, 6.00 Draw, 7.60 Borussia Dortmund
The biggest game in German football is back, and this season it feels even bigger than usual. Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund come into the weekend level on 17 points, already four clear of the chasing pack. It’s early in the season, but there’s no doubt this is a statement match.
Bayern have been absolutely ruthless going forward, rattling in 25 goals across their opening seven league games. Dortmund haven’t quite matched those numbers at the other end, but what they’ve lacked in fireworks they’ve made up for with defensive resilience, conceding just four goals so far. Something has to give.
After strolling to the title last season, Bayern are understandably strong favourites on home turf, but I’m not sure it’ll be as straightforward as the market suggests. Arsenal recently went to Munich and came away with a 2-2 draw, while Bayern themselves haven’t kept a clean sheet in six matches. For all their attacking brilliance, teams are still finding ways to hurt them.
Recent history points in one direction too. Bayern won both meetings last season, but only by 2-1 and 3-2 scorelines. These games tend to be played at full throttle, with quality all over the pitch and neither side interested in settling for containment.
I can see a similar story unfolding here. Bayern should have enough firepower to get the job done at the Allianz, but Dortmund are too good, too organised and too dangerous to be completely shut out.
Tip: Bayern Munich to win & both teams to score @ 2.08. 1 unit.
Aston Villa v Fulham
Premier League, Villa Park, Birmingham, UK, 9pm CET, Saturday 31st October
Prices: 1.87 Aston Villa, 3.75 Draw, 3.70
Following that heavyweight clash in Germany, we head to England for some Saturday night Premier League action.
Aston Villa looked in a bit of trouble early in the season and, in all honesty, plenty of people wondered whether losing so much talent over the summer would finally catch up with them. Throw in Amadou Onana’s injury at the World Cup and there were legitimate concerns. Full credit to Unai Emery, though. He’s found solutions, his new signings have settled quickly, and Villa have climbed from the depths into the top half of the table.
A lot of the turnaround has been driven by players stepping up. Nicolas Jackson looks reborn under Emery and was outstanding in the 2-1 win over Manchester City last weekend. Johan Manzambi is already attracting admiring glances from Europe’s elite, while Zion Suzuki has rapidly become a fan favourite at Villa Park.
Fulham arrive with a couple of league wins under their belt against Hull and Coventry, but they suffered a setback against Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup during the week and this represents a significant step up in class. Villa Park is becoming a difficult place to visit again, and the hosts are playing with a level of confidence that simply wasn’t there a month ago.
The market has certainly taken notice. You could have backed Villa at better than even money earlier in the week, but those prices have been smashed in over the last few days. Even at the shorter odds, I’m not looking to oppose them.
Everything points towards Villa continuing their resurgence, and I’m happy to back the home side to keep the good times rolling.
Tip: Aston Villa to win @ 1.87. 2 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.