After a sensational weekend that yielded a 94% return on investment, Tommy the Punter returns with a betting preview for the relegation battle; Forest v Wolves at the City Ground.
Odds provided by 1XBet.
Nottingham Forest v Wolves
Premier League, City Ground, Nottingham, UK, 8.30pm CET, Wednesday 11th February
Prices: 1.73 Nottingham Forest, 3.94 Draw, 5.58 Wolves
If you’re looking at this weekend’s slate and trying not to overthink it, Nottingham Forest at home to Wolves is one of those games where the more you stare at it, the more obvious it becomes.
Wolves are in a bad place. Not “unlucky run” bad. Not “underlying numbers say they’ll turn it around” bad. Just flat, lifeless, going-through-the-motions bad. Being 3–0 down to Chelsea by half-time last week wasn’t just a blip, it was a team that looked like it had mentally clocked off for the season. No fight, no urgency, no pride.
Forest, on the other hand, will be hurting, and that’s exactly why this is a good spot for them.
That capitulation at Leeds on Friday will have absolutely stung. They were in decent nick before that, playing with a bit of structure and belief, and you can guarantee Sean Dyche has had them in all week reminding them that three points here isn’t “nice to have”, it’s essential to their survival hopes. Dyche is nothing if not pragmatic. He’ll have this set up as a must-win, get-it-done, no-nonsense job.
There are also a couple of nice little edges in Forest’s favour.
Igor Jesus looks lively every time he gets near the box. He’s direct, he’s awkward to deal with, and against a Wolves defence that doesn’t look overly interested in defending, he should get chances. Then there’s Morgan Gibbs-White up against his old club, and if you don’t think that matters, you’ve never watched a player with a point to prove. He’ll be right up for this.
Most importantly, Forest’s backline is still largely the one that served them so well last year. They know how to grind out results when it matters. They’ve done it before. Wolves look like a side waiting for the season to end. Forest look like a side that knows it can’t afford for it to.
At this stage of the campaign, that mindset difference is everything.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to win @ 1.72. 1 unit.
FFS – Gamble responsibly
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