No damage done in midweek, which is always a small victory in itself. England slumped to defeat against Japan, but for what it’s worth, I’m not reading too much into these friendlies at this stage of the season. Most of the players have their eyes on the big club prizes, so you’re bound to see a few of them leave a bit in the tank. Tuchel’s men will be just fine when the real thing kicks off in June.
Over in Sweden v Poland, both teams scored before half‑time, which landed nicely and meant I walked away break‑even for the week. Not glamorous, not disastrous — just a clean reset.
Now we’re back to domestic action, it’s the start of Mo Salah’s farewell party and there are some massive games to get stuck into. Time to sharpen the pencil and dive in.
All odds provided from Stake.com.
Adelaide United v Auckland
A-League, Coopers Stadium, Adelaide, Australia, 9.35am CET, Saturday 4th April
Prices: 2.85 Adelaide United, 3.75 Draw, Auckland 2.25
I’m heading to South Australia for one that feels a touch out of line with where these two are right now. Auckland might have the prettier league position, but that doesn’t tell you how they’re travelling. Adelaide are unbeaten in six, they’ve rediscovered a bit of bite, and with Luka Jovanovic chasing the Golden Boot, Cooper’s Stadium is going to be absolutely bouncing. It’s the kind of night where the home side tends to play with their chest out.
Auckland, meanwhile, have lost their rhythm. March was shaky after they briefly threatened to reel in Newcastle, and that flat showing against Macarthur didn’t exactly scream “title push.” Even with the international break, this is the second‑longest away trip in the league and one of the toughest grounds to walk into when your form’s gone sideways.
Given all that, there’s only one angle that makes sense — especially with a bit of protection built in.
Tip: Adelaide United Draw No Bet @ 2.13. 1 unit.
Manchester City v Liverpool
FA Cup Quarter Final, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, 1.45pm CET, Saturday 4th April
Prices: 1.77 Manchester City, 4.10 Draw, 4.00 Liverpool
I’m heading to the Etihad next, where the narrative has been dominated by Mo Salah announcing his Liverpool exit during the international break. It’s a big story, but Pep Guardiola doesn’t do sentimentality. If anything, City used the Carabao Cup Final to remind everyone that when the lights are brightest, Guardiola is still the master. They took Arsenal apart — brutally, methodically, expertly — and you could almost feel the switch flick as they moved into trophy‑mode.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are in a hole. Their domestic form is putrid: defeat at Brighton, a home draw with Tottenham, defeat to Wolves. That’s not the sort of run you just shrug off and suddenly turn up at the Etihad looking like world‑beaters. Arne Slot’s side are leaking confidence, leaking goals, and leaking points at exactly the wrong time.
City, by contrast, have all the big hitters available and the Wembley win has only sharpened their appetite. They know a domestic treble is still very much alive, and they’ll be licking their lips at this one. Their aggregate score against Liverpool this season is 5–1, and nothing about the way these two are trending suggests the tables suddenly turn here.
You can probably tell which way I’m leaning.
Tip: Manchester City to win @ 1.77. 2 units.
Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga, MHPArena, Stuttgart, Germany, 6.30pm, Saturday 4th April
Prices: 2.36 Stuttgart, 4.10 Draw, 2.75 Borussia Dortmund
I’m finishing in Germany, where Dortmund look like a side who’ve shaken off their Bayern hangover in the best possible way. Three wins on the spin, the swagger returning, and the international break arriving at just the right moment to recharge the batteries before the final push for second place. They know a result here all but locks it in.
This one should be lively. Stuttgart are flying themselves, and with Deniz Undav and Serhou Guirassy both in ridiculous form, you’d be brave to call this anything other than high‑scoring. They played out a 3–3 thriller at Dortmund earlier in the campaign, and I wouldn’t rule out something similarly chaotic here — in fact, Dortmund often thrive when the game goes off the rails.
Stuttgart will have their moments, no doubt, but my view hasn’t changed: Dortmund are the clear second‑best team in Germany this season. So when you’re getting a shade above even money with a bit of insurance baked in, it feels like the sensible way to round out Saturday’s punting card.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund Draw Not Bet @ 2.03. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.