Midweek nearly finished me. Real Madrid created enough chances to fill a highlights reel and still couldn’t drag themselves level with Bayern, while PSG treated Liverpool like a mildly inconvenient training drill. That one was so comfortable I should’ve been paid out at half‑time.
But that’s the life of a punter on the edge, one minute you’re cursing at the TV, the next you’re strutting around the kitchen like you’ve cracked the code to football itself.
Now the Premier League is back, the run‑in is here, and everything suddenly matters again. Title race, relegation scrap, European spots, it’s all bubbling away like a dodgy kettle. I’ve got my eye on two absolute monsters in England and a little detour to Germany where things could get properly spicy.
Let’s cause some trouble.
All odds provided from Stake.com.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga, Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany, 3.30pm CET, Saturday 11th April
Prices: 2.00 Borussia Dortmund, 3.90 Draw, 3.50 Bayer Leverkusen
Leverkusen are a full‑blown Jekyll & Hyde operation at the moment. One week they’re putting six past Wolfsburg like they’re playing against traffic cones, the next they’re stumbling into 3–3 draws as if defending is optional. They’re not shy in front of goal, I’ll give them that, but if there’s one club on the planet capable of out‑chaosing a chaos merchant, it’s Borussia Dortmund at home.
BVB did the business for this column last week and I’ve been saying it all season: they’re a cut above everyone in the Bundesliga not named Bayern. They’re 15 points clear of Leverkusen for a reason, and with a win here they can at least make Bayern glance nervously over their shoulder. The title might be a longshot, but Dortmund aren’t the type to quietly accept their fate, they’ll keep swinging until someone turns the lights off.
Goals are coming from every angle, the Yellow Wall will be vibrating, and this has all the ingredients of a beautifully unhinged goalfest. In that kind of game, I’m siding with the home side every time.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund to win & both teams to score @ 3.15. 1 unit.
Sunderland v Tottenham
Premier League, Stadium of Light, Sunderland, UK, 3.00pm CET, Sunday 12th April
Prices: 2.65 Sunderland, 3.40 Draw, 2.70 Tottenham
All eyes are glued to this one as Roberto De Zerbi steps into the Tottenham dugout for the first time. The man’s had a decent stretch on the training pitch to pump his ideas into this squad, and with West Ham and Forest both staring at winnable home fixtures, he doesn’t exactly have the luxury of easing himself in. Spurs need a spark, a jolt, a caffeine shot straight to the soul, and a new manager bounce is as good a place as any to find it.
Sunderland arrive buzzing after doing the double over Newcastle, which they’ll be talking about until the end of time, but let’s not pretend everything is rosy. Before that, they looked like a team mentally halfway to Ibiza, losing at home to Brighton and getting punted out of the FA Cup by Port Vale. The injury list hasn’t magically healed either.
Tottenham, for all their flaws, still have players who can win a match in a single moment, and if De Zerbi can inject even 10% of his usual chaos‑energy into them, they’ve got enough to avoid defeat here. Backing Spurs is always an emotional risk, but if there’s ever a moment to roll the dice, it’s when the new manager smell is still fresh.
Tip: Tottenham Draw No Bet @ 1.90. 1 unit.
Chelsea v Manchester City
Premier League, Stamford Bridge, London, UK, 5.30pm CET, Sunday 12th April
Prices: 3.10 Chelsea, 3.85 Draw, 2.17 Manchester City
The meeting between these two at the Etihad might be one of the moments City look back on and mutter, “that’s where it slipped.” Enzo Maresca had already been sacked by then, Chelsea were in full identity crisis mode, and yet Enzo Fernández pops up with a late equaliser to nick a point they had no business taking. Fast‑forward to now and Fernández is once again the headline act, only this time it’s for a club suspension, the absolute last thing Chelsea needed heading into a game like this.
Yes, they hammered Port Vale, but that’s wallpaper over a collapsing wall. Before that, they’d lost four on the bounce, including a 3–0 surrender at Everton that looked like a team spiritually halfway down the M6. Liam Rosenior is juggling problems everywhere he looks, and none of them are small.
City, meanwhile, look like they’ve hit that terrifying late‑season groove where they start treating fixtures like administrative tasks. The domestic treble is a real carrot, Haaland rediscovered his inner Viking with a hat‑trick last week, and Rodri is back to strolling through games like he’s playing a different sport. The price on City here is outrageous, you don’t normally get them at this number unless half the squad is missing.
This is a confident pick. I think City win, and win well, piling even more pressure on Rosenior, who, let’s be honest, might not be in that seat much longer.
Tip: Manchester City to win @ 2.17. 2 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.