Well it had to come eventually. After a golden run where everything I touched turned to profit, the bubble finally burst at the weekend. West Ham folded like a cheap deckchair, Brighton got absolutely walloped, and Dortmund kindly played ‘Gladbach into form. Barcelona were the only winner on the docket and even that was a narrow, slightly apologetic one. Still, if there was a silver lining, it’s that El Clasico at the weekend now has a whole new dimension to it, exactly as hoped.
But before we get to that, the Champions League returns, and after an all‑timer last week, Bayern and an elite PSG have a lot to live up to. Arsenal and Atletico is also perfectly poised, and given how kind Europe has been to me in recent rounds, I’m hoping this is where the bounce‑back begins.
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Arsenal v Atletico Madrid
Champions League, Emirates Stadium, London, UK, 9pm CET, Tuesday 5th May
Prices: 1.56 Arsenal, 4.15 Draw, 5.80 Atletico Madrid
We expected a cagey, tactical first leg in Madrid last week and that’s exactly what we got. A fair 1‑1 draw, neither side overcommitting, both managers clearly playing the long game. These two actually met at the Emirates earlier this season, with Arsenal running out 4‑0 winners after a ridiculous second‑half blitz. But given the trajectory of both sides since then, we can safely file that result under “not happening again”.
Arsenal did at least show flickers of their best at the weekend against Fulham. And following Manchester City’s draw with Everton on Monday, the belief is back that they can reach the holy grail of Premier League title glory as well as just their second Champions League Final in club history. The atmosphere will be feral, the stakes enormous, and the pressure squarely on the home side.
Atletico, meanwhile, look like they’ve been saving themselves for this tie. They rotated heavily for the weekend’s 2‑0 win at Valencia, so they’ll arrive in London fresh, snarling, and fully Simeone‑fied. The man knows his way around a European semi‑final. He knocked Arsenal out at this stage of the Europa League in 2018, and his side were excellent in dispatching Barcelona in the last round. Julian Alvarez is a gem, but so are William Saliba and Gabriel, and this feels like a battle of two elite defensive units rather than two free‑flowing attacks.
Everything points towards another tight, tactical affair. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s 0‑0 at half‑time, and I certainly don’t see this turning into a shootout. The unders make the most sense, and at the price, I’m happy to get involved.
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.93. 1 unit.
Bayern Munich v PSG
Champions League, Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany, 9pm CET, Wednesday 6th May
Prices: 1.68 Bayern Munich, 5.20 Draw, 3.80 PSG
Since the knockout phase began, I’ve been bullish about PSG’s chances of retaining their European crown, and while Bayern impressed me last week, I’m not changing the record now. PSG’s electrifying pace on the counter makes them just as dangerous away from home, and with Bayern chasing the game, this could play directly into the French champions’ hands.
Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz have been superb this season, but PSG’s attack is on another level. Kvichka Kvaratskhelia is playing like a man auditioning for the Ballon d’Or shortlist, and the supporting cast isn’t far behind. The midfield is as technical as anything in Europe, and the back five is far more solid than people give them credit for.
Bayern were good last week but, in my view, fortunate to still be in the tie. They weren’t convincing in the second leg of their quarter‑final against Real Madrid, and now they’re coming into this needing to overturn a deficit. That’s a big ask against a PSG side that thrives in transition and has the swagger of a team that believes it’s destined for Budapest.
I don’t see PSG losing here. The retention dream rolls on.
Tip: PSG or Draw @ 2.20. 1 unit.
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