Last week’s Europa League final was one of those glorious nights where everything landed just the way we drew it up. Villa did the business for a tidy 3‑point return, Morgan Rogers scored AND assisted, and we weren’t far off nailing the 3‑1 correct score either. Lovely stuff.
So I’m reeling out my Conference League final tips full of confidence, full of momentum, and absolutely ready to have a proper swing at this Conference League decider, with the Champions League still to come on Saturday. What a week.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Crystal Palace v Rayo Vallecano
Conference League, Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany, 9pm CET, Wednesday 27th May
Prices: 1.93 Crystal Palace, 3.50 Draw, 4.30 Rayo Vallecano; To lift the trophy: 1.45 Crystal Palace, 2.70 Rayo Vallecano
For the third time in five years, an English side has made the Conference League final — and for the second year running it’s England v Spain. The previous two English finalists both lifted the trophy, and I fancy Crystal Palace to make it three from three in Leipzig.
Oliver Glasner has been a revelation in south‑east London. Whatever happens here, he leaves the club in the best shape it’s ever been in. But make no mistake, he’ll want to sign off with silverware after a genuinely historic spell.
Palace have weathered the departures of Eberechi Eze and Marc Guehi brilliantly, and their recruitment has been nothing short of elite. Maxence Lacroix, Daniel Muñoz, Ismaila Sarr, Jean‑Philippe Mateta, Yeremy Pino, all off to the World Cup this summer. Adam Wharton has been outrageous in midfield and somehow still didn’t make England’s squad. And Dean Henderson has finally found a home where he looks every inch a top‑class keeper.
Rayo Vallecano are no mugs, eighth in La Liga and unbeaten in eight coming into this, but they’ve scraped through a couple of knockout rounds and this is a huge step up in class. They’re functional, organised, and stubborn, but they don’t score many and they don’t create a huge amount either. Against a Palace side with this much quality in the attacking third, I think they’ll struggle to keep up.
We’re sticking with the formula that paid out so nicely last week.
One player I’ve absolutely loved watching in this competition is Ismaila Sarr. He always had the talent at Watford, went to Marseille, and has come back to England looking like one of the signings of the season. 21 goals in 42 appearances from an attacking midfielder is outrageous. He’s electric, direct, and a nightmare to defend against.
So I’m backing him to score AND assist in the final, the same double‑market angle that served us so well with Rogers. And for the correct score, I’m going 2–0 Palace. I just don’t see Rayo breaking them down, and Palace have too much pace, too much quality, and too much confidence right now.
Tips:
Crystal Palace to win in 90 mins @ 1.93. 2 units.
Ismaila Sarr to score @ 2.49. 1 unit.
Ismaila Sarr to assist @ 4.50 (Generally available). 1 unit.
2-0 correct score @ 8.00. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s Tipping Record here