Day 4 of the World Cup is here, and after Qatar produced the shock of the tournament so far, a 95th‑minute equaliser against Switzerland that sent half the betting world into meltdown, we roll into Sunday with the slate wiped clean and the optimism tank refilled.
I’m writing this before my Day 3 tips have even kicked off, so with any luck we’re heading into this quadruple‑header with a full balance, a clear head, and the kind of reckless confidence that only a World Cup can give you. Because Day 4? Day 4 is loaded. Four games, three bets, and more storylines than a Netflix documentary.
Let’s get stuck in.
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Germany v Curacao
World Cup Group E, Houston Stadium, Houston, USA, 7pm CET, Sunday 14th June
Prices: 1.02 Germany, 20.00 Draw, 40.00 Curacao
Germany have spent the last two World Cups stumbling around like they’ve forgotten how to be Germany. Group stage exits, tactical confusion, existential crises, the lot. But now? Now they get the softest landing imaginable: a debutant nation with a population smaller than Munich.
The layers aren’t messing about. Germany are 1.02 to win. Even the -2 handicap is long odds‑on. You’d get better value betting on the sun rising tomorrow. Julian Nagelsmann has attacking options coming out of his ears, Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz, Beier, and even the anytime goalscorer markets are tighter than a drum. Curaçao qualifying is a brilliant story, and I genuinely hope they enjoy every second of it, but this is a mismatch of biblical proportions.
Sometimes the best bet is no bet.
Netherlands v Japan
World Cup Group F, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 10pm CET, Sunday 14th June
Prices: 2.02 Netherlands, 3.55 Draw, 3.65 Japan
Now this is where the fun starts.
The Netherlands are one of the most watchable teams in the world when they click. A spine of Van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, and Cody Gakpo is as good as anything in the tournament. They play one way, front foot, aggressive, expansive, and that always brings goals.
But Japan… Japan are a team nobody wants to face. They beat England 1–0 at Wembley in March. They came from 2–0 down to beat Brazil in the last year. They’re tactically sharp, technically gifted, and fearless. Mitoma being out is a blow, but this squad has depth, balance, and a proper identity. They’ll press, they’ll counter, they’ll run all day, and they’ll absolutely fancy their chances of causing another upset.
The Dutch don’t do boring. Japan don’t do boring. This has goals written all over it.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.94. 1 unit.
Ivory Coast v Ecuador
World Cup Group E, Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, USA, 1am CET, Monday 15th June
Prices: 3.50 Ivory Coast, 2.85 Draw, 2.45 Ecuador
This is the hipster’s game of the dayl; Two physical, athletic, technically strong sides who both think they can go deep in this tournament.
Ecuador are the real deal. A generational defence: Pacho, Hincapié, Caicedo. A leader up top: Enner Valencia, still scoring, still snarling. A team that doesn’t concede many and doesn’t give you a second on the ball.
Ivory Coast, though, have weapons. Bazoumana Touré, Yan Diomande, Oumar Diakité, all young, all electric, all looking to put themselves in the shop window. This will be physical. This will be frantic. This will be full of fouls. But with the attacking talent on both sides, I’m stunned that both teams to score is the outsider. That’s value. That’s the play.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 2.25. 1 unit.
Sweden v Tunisia
World Cup Group F, Estadio Monterrey, Guadalupe, Mexico, 4am CET, Monday 15th June
Prices: 1.90 Sweden, 3.45 Draw, 4.25 Tunisia
Sweden qualified in pure chaos, but now they’re here, and Graham Potter has them playing expansive, attacking football — the kind that suits their two star forwards perfectly. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres are elite. Not good. Not promising. Elite.
Tunisia, meanwhile, have shown very little in AFCON or recent friendlies. They’re organised but limited, and unless Sweden implode, this is a brilliant price on the favourites. Sweden should win this. And at 1.90, they’re a confident pick.
Tip: Sweden to win @ 1.90. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.