Welcome to a column of chaos, hope and questionable decision‑making — otherwise known as football betting. I’m Tommy the Punter, here to sift through the fixtures, trust the gut, ignore the noise and try to find a bit of value in a sport that loves to make fools of us all.
Some weeks the ball bounces our way, some weeks it smacks us in the face, but as punters, we’re nothing if not brave.
Melbourne Victory v Western Sydney Wanderers
A-League, AAMI Park, Melbourne, Australia, 7am CET, Saturday 10th January
Prices: 1.95 Melbourne Victory, 3.60 Draw, 3.50 Western Sydney Wanderers
Since early December, Melbourne Victory have completely flipped their season on its head. It started with a gritty win over Adelaide in the Original Derby, followed by a stoppage‑time winner against rivals Melbourne City. Then came the statement performance: a 5–1 demolition of Wellington Phoenix, arguably the most impressive display of their campaign. They backed that up with a 3–2 win over Perth Glory, all of these wins at fortress AAMI Park.
And that’s exactly where they host bottom‑placed Western Sydney Wanderers on Saturday.
Wanderers have been in dire straits all season. Just two wins to their name, and the last of those came way back in late November in the Sydney Derby. Since then, it’s been a slide with no signs of stabilising.
Victory, on the other hand, are getting goals from everywhere, wide players, midfielders, set pieces, late runs, you name it. Confidence is high, momentum is real, and the home crowd only amplifies it.
At the prices, Victory making it five straight wins looks more than fair.
Tommy’s tip: Melbourne Victory to win @ 1.95 General. 1 unit.
Newcastle v Bournemouth
FA Cup 3rd Round, St James’ Park, Newcastle, UK, 4pm CET, Saturday 10th January
Prices: 1.75 Newcastle; 4.00 Draw, 4.20 Bournemouth
Newcastle have quietly become cup specialists in recent seasons. Two straight Carabao Cup finals, including last year’s win over eventual Premier League champions Liverpool, show they know how to navigate knockout football. With Manchester City waiting in the Carabao Cup and then Chelsea or Arsenal beyond that, the FA Cup might actually be their more realistic route back into Europe.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, arrive off the back of an emotionally draining win over Tottenham, and they’ll now be without Antoine Semenyo after his long‑anticipated move to Manchester City. Combine that with a poor run of league form and you get the sense this tie won’t be top of their priority list.
At St James’ Park, with the crowd behind them and a clear incentive to take this competition seriously, Newcastle look well placed to progress.
Tommy’s tip: Newcastle to win @ 1.75 General. 1 unit.
Algeria v Nigeria
Africa Cup of Nations Quarter-Final, Stade de Marrakech, Ouahat Sidi Brahim, Morocco, 5pm CET, Saturday 10th January
Odds: 3.10 Algeria, 3.00 Draw, 2.50 Nigeria
Nigeria turned heads with their 4–0 dismantling of Mozambique in the last 16 — a performance full of pace, power and clinical finishing. Algeria, by contrast, had to drag themselves past DR Congo, needing a late extra‑time goal to scrape through. Both sides are stacked with attacking talent, but right now the Super Eagles look sharper, hungrier and far more dangerous in the final third.
Ademola Lookman and Victor Osimhen are flying, even if they had their little dispute in the previous match. When those two are on song, they can trouble any defence in Africa. Behind them, Raphael Onyedika has been outstanding in midfield, knitting play together alongside the ever‑reliable Alex Iwobi.
Algeria’s forwards can cause problems — they always can — but based on form, momentum and sheer attacking threat, it’s Nigeria who look the more likely to book their place in the semi‑finals.
Tommy’s tip: Nigeria to win @ 2.50 General. 1 unit.
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