Yesterday was one of those days that makes you question everything and then immediately double down like an idiot. Portugal did their bit, three goals in the first half, cruising, and I’m thinking we’re on for another proper payday. Then the universe decided to have a laugh.
How Harry Kane didn’t score… I’ll never understand. The man had a sitter that my nan would’ve buried. And Luis Díaz? Two goals chalked off, two world‑class saves from a keeper who suddenly turned into prime Buffon the moment I needed him to fold.
And don’t get me started on Croatia. Absolutely desperate stuff. They scraped an undeserved 1–0 against Panama and somehow walked off like they’d achieved something. If they make the knockouts, I’ll be opposing them with every fibre of my being.
But here’s the thing, I wasn’t far off a really good day. The chances were there, the reads were right, and that actually gives me confidence. Now we’ve got six games a day through the weekend, and if that isn’t something to savour, I genuinely don’t know what is.
Tommy’s ready. Let’s be having some more World Cup wagers.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Qatar
World Cup Group B, Seattle Stadium, Seattle, USA, 9pm CET, Wednesday 24th June
Prices: 1.40 Bosnia & Herzegovina, 4.90 Draw, 7.00 Qatar
I wasn’t even going to bother putting up a bet for this one. Neither side covered themselves in glory last time out, it was like watching two teams trying to lose politely, but somehow they both still have a route to the knockouts. The catch? They both have to win.
That’s probably why the bookmakers are expecting goals, but I’m not buying it. This has all the ingredients of a cagey, sit‑in, nick‑a‑1‑0 type of match. Neither team has anything resembling attacking quality, and Bosnia’s idea of creativity is basically “hope something falls our way”.
Still, they did manage a draw with Canada, which is more than you can say for their opponents, so I’m siding with Bosnia to edge a tight, scrappy affair. I’ll probably have a saver on under 3.5 as well, not exactly glamorous, but it feels right.
And look at the numbers: aside from that Switzerland game, Bosnia hadn’t seen more than two goals in any of their previous six. They know how to drag a match into the mud and grind out whatever they need. It won’t be pretty, but it might just pay.
Tip: Bosnia & Herzegovina & under 2.5 goals @ 3.29. 1 unit.
Switzerland v Canada
World Cup Group B, BC Place, Vancouver, Canada, 9pm CET, Wednesday 24th June
Prices: 2.30 Switzerland, 3.10 Draw, 3.25 Canada
Compared to the other two fixtures in this group, this one actually feels like a bit of a breather. There’s less pressure on both sides, and that usually means one thing: they might actually try to play some football.
The Swiss stuck four past Bosnia last time out and would’ve had more than one against Qatar if their keeper hadn’t suddenly decided to have the game of his life. Canada, meanwhile, smashed six past Qatar in a proper statement performance. They’ll want to put on a show for the home crowd again, they always do.
But for me, Switzerland are the best team in this group. Clean, organised, dangerous in the right moments. I wouldn’t touch the match result because it could go either way, but both teams to score feels about as sensible as it gets. Two sides who can attack, nothing to lose, and a bit of freedom in the legs, that usually leads to fun.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.75. 1 unit.
Scotland v Brazil
World Cup Group C, Miami Stadium, Miami, USA, 12am CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 8.80 Scotland, 5.00 Draw, 1.33 Brazil
Scotland go into this one against Brazil knowing they probably need something from it, which is never the sentence you want to hear when the team in question is… Scotland. You can’t fault their spirit, they’ve shown plenty of that, and the foundations are solid enough, but the lack of real X‑Factor has been obvious in both games so far, even with Scott McTominay doing his best impression of a one‑man national rescue service.
Brazil, on the other hand, actually have something to play for as well. They need a win to lock up top spot, and they looked far more like themselves in that comfortable 3–0 stroll against Haiti. The quality they’ve got is ridiculous, it oozes out of every line of the team, and with Vini Jr already on two goals this tournament, you know exactly where the danger is coming from.
Scotland will make them work for it, because they always do, but eventually Brazil’s class will tell. They should have enough to get the job done and wrap up Group C the way everyone expected from the start.
Tip: Brazil to win & under 2.5 goals @ 2.62. 1 unit.
Morocco v Haiti
World Cup Group C, Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, USA, 12am CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 1.18 Morocco, 7.00 Draw, 15.00 Haiti
Haiti have been one of the smallest nations at this World Cup, but you can’t fault their spirit — they’ve had a proper go. The problem is the gulf in class was glaring against Brazil, and I think we’re looking at a similar story here against Morocco.
Ismael Saibari has been absolutely electric so far, two gorgeous goals in each of Morocco’s first two matches, and he looks like he’s playing the tournament on easy mode. Morocco to win with Saibari to score pays a tidy price, and I’m more than happy to ride that form.
Ayoub El Kaabi was the one I expected to be leading the line, and if he gets the nod here I’d fancy him to get in on the act as well, but that’s more of a “keep an eye on the teamsheet” job than a rock‑solid tip. Haiti will fight, but Morocco have too much. Saibari’s the man.
Tip: Morocco to win & Ismael Saibari to score @ 2.36
South Africa v South Korea
World Cup Group A, Monterrey Stadium, Guadalupe, Mexico, 3am CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 5.00 South Africa, 3.70, 1.66 South Korea
South Korea were unlucky not to take anything from Mexico, they played well, created chances, and just didn’t get the bounce. And I think they’ll have more than enough to deal with a South Africa side who’ve looked poor from the first whistle of this tournament.
We’ve had big names turning up all over the place, but we’re still waiting for Son Heung‑min or Lee Kang‑in to properly light it up. It feels like we’re overdue a moment from one of them. Whether it’s them or someone else, Korea only need a draw here… but let’s be honest, South Africa haven’t scored from open play yet, so the bar isn’t exactly high.
This has all the makings of another low‑scoring, slightly scrappy affair, but Korea should get it done. Professional, controlled, nothing wild.
Tip: South Korea to win & under 2.5 goals @ 3.00. 1 unit.
Czechia v Mexico
World Cup Group A, Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico, 3am CET, Thursday 25th June
Prices: 3.75 Czechia, 3.75 Draw, 1.90 Mexico
Aside from Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czechia are probably the worst European side at this tournament, and nothing they’ve shown in the first two games suggests they’re suddenly going to march into the Azteca and outplay the co‑hosts. They’ve thrown away leads against both South Korea and South Africa, and now they have to beat Mexico to get through. Good luck with that.
I don’t think they’ll manage it, but they’re stubborn enough to make a nuisance of themselves. They’ll sit in, scrap for every ball, and try to drag Mexico into a horrible, slow, bitty game. And to be fair, they could easily force a draw if Mexico get frustrated.
All of that points in one direction: another low‑scoring affair. Czechia can’t finish, Mexico will have to work for every inch, and the whole thing has the feel of a match that never quite catches fire.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.