The Premier League title race looks like it might be another classic, ding-dong battle, but I don’t see it that way. I’ll be honest with you, every so often a price pops up that makes me stop what I’m doing, lean back in the chair, and mutter, “Hang on… that can’t be right.” Manchester City to win the Premier League is one of those moments.
I’ve stared at it. Walked away. Come back. Stared again.
And every time, the same thought hits me: this is incredible value. The kind of value that has me eyeing the savings account and wondering whether those dusty exchange‑traded bits I’ve been ignoring for years might finally have a purpose.
Because if you’ve watched the last few weeks unfold, you’ll know exactly why I’m getting that itch.
Arsenal look like they’re feeling the weight
Two London derbies coming up, fresh off an emotionally draining draw with Wolves, and needing six points just to keep City at bay. I don’t see it happening.
You can see the tension in every touch. They’re not playing with the freedom of a team chasing glory, they’re playing like a team terrified of throwing it away. The title race isn’t lifting them; it’s dragging them down like a millstone tied to their ankles.
City, meanwhile, have quietly transformed
People are pricing City like the side that stumbled through the first half of the season. But that version of City is gone. Pep’s tweaked, tinkered, and rebuilt the machine mid‑season, like he always does.
Two additions have changed everything. Marc Guehi is exactly what they needed. Calm, composed and a proper defender who’s tightened them up at the back. Then there’s Antoine Semenyo; Direct, powerful, unpredictable, he’s added a whole new attacking angle. A different kind of threat.
These two have made City look like City again. And I don’t think the market has caught up. If this was August, City would be 1.80. Maybe shorter.
The run‑in is where this really tilts
When I look at Arsenal’s remaining fixtures, I don’t see a title charge, I see a gauntlet. Spurs away, Chelsea at home, Brighton away, Newcastle at home, and then the big one at the Etihad. These are exactly the types of games where Arsenal have historically come unstuck, and you can already feel the tension building around them.
City’s schedule isn’t perfect, but on balance it’s clearly the smoother of the two. They’ve got their own tricky moments, sure, but nothing like the stretch Arsenal are about to walk through.
And then there’s the Carabao Cup Final, where the two sides meet. That game suddenly feels enormous. If Arsenal win it, fair enough, I don’t expect City to crumble. They’ve been here too many times. But if City win it? If they land the first punch in a season‑defining double‑header? I honestly think Arsenal could implode under the weight of it all.
That’s the difference. City absorb pressure. Arsenal absorb panic.
The Etihad in April — we all know how that ends
Everyone keeps talking about the Etihad showdown like it’s a coin flip. It isn’t.
Arsenal haven’t won there since 2014. A decade of going there and getting rolled.
If the title comes down to that game, and it probably will, I know exactly who I’m backing. I’ve seen this story too many times.
Pep’s experience vs Arteta’s nerves
This is the part of the season where Pep Guardiola becomes inevitable. This is where he reels in the leaders. This is where he squeezes the pressure until the team in front cracks.
Arsenal have talent. City have muscle memory. And muscle memory wins titles.
So what am I doing?
I’m not just having a bet, I’m having a proper bet. I’m pacing around the kitchen, muttering about unlocking the savings account and cashing in a few exchange‑traded leftovers I forgot I even owned, because 2.50 on City feels like the kind of price you only see once every few seasons.
This isn’t reckless. This is recognising a market that hasn’t caught up with reality.
City shouldn’t be 2.50. City shouldn’t even be second favourites. City look like the team that finishes the job. Arsenal look like the team hoping they can, and hope doesn’t win titles.
So yes, I’m on, and if the blue side of Manchester are celebrating come May, I plan to be celebrating right alongside them.
Tip: Manchester City to win the Premier League @ 2.50. 3 units. Odds provided by Stake.com.
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