Some weeks the football betting gods smile on you. Other weeks they punt your soul into the sun. Midweek was the latter. I was already celebrating Sydney’s “win” over Auckland, chanting voice notes of my own name to the boys like some deranged terrace mascot, before an ill‑timed Rhyan Grant own goal killed the joy stone dead. Dortmund did the business, bless them, but AC Milan then decided to play 90 minutes of sterile domination against Como and practically gift‑wrap the title for Inter.
After a brief period of soul‑searching (and a long stare into the bathroom mirror), I’m back. And I’ve found three picks that feel like they’ve been hand‑delivered by the universe.
Adelaide United v Perth Glory
A-League, Coopers Stadium, Adelaide, Australia, 9.35am CET, Friday 20th February
General Prices: 2.10 Adelaide United, 3.80 Draw, 3.00 Perth Glory
Coopers Stadium is a fortress. Not a metaphorical one, an actual, spiritual, footballing bunker where visiting teams go to suffer. Adelaide sit higher in the table, they’re at home, and they’re odds‑against. That alone should make your eyebrows shoot into orbit.
But here’s the real kicker: Adelaide are shot merchants. Twenty‑three shots on target in their last four games. They pepper goalkeepers like it’s a hobby. Perth, meanwhile, have one win in five and the defensive solidity of a wet paper bag.
Home advantage, better form, better numbers, better everything. This is the bet of the weekend in Australia.
Tip: Adelaide United to win @ 2.18 on 1XBet. 1 unit.
Osasuna v Real Madrid
La Liga, El Sadar, Pamplona, Spain, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 21st February
General Prices: 4.60 Osasuna, 4.00 Draw, 1.67 Real Madrid
Since Álvaro Arbeloa took over at Real Madrid they’re on an absolute tear. Vini Jr and Mbappé are in sensational form and they’ve won eight on the bounce in the league. Osasuna can be tricky, but Madrid won the reverse fixture 4–0, and Los Rojillos haven’t beaten a team in the top six this season, so don’t expect that to change here.
Madrid’s press is suffocating, their transitions are lightning, and they look like a side playing with total confidence. The midfield is purring, the defence is settled, and they’re managing games with a maturity they didn’t always show last season. This feels like another routine three points. Confident bet.
Tip: Real Madrid to win @ 1.75 on 1XBet. 2 units.
RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga, Red Bull Arena Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 21st February
General Prices: 2.15 RB Leipzig, 3.80 Draw, 2.90 Borussia Dortmund
Big game in the Bundesliga, and the prices still don’t make sense. Dortmund are playing with a confidence and sharpness that’s been building for weeks. The wide players are stretching teams, the midfield finally looks balanced, and defensively they’ve cut out the nonsense that was costing them earlier in the season. Beier has been brilliant too, direct, fearless, and exactly the sort of runner who forces defenders into bad decisions when he gets isolated one‑on‑one.
And then there’s Guirassy. The man is a walking cheat code at the moment. He scored again midweek — yes, I backed him, yes, I’m taking full credit — and he gives Dortmund a focal point. Between his movement, Beier’s chaos and the way Dortmund are transitioning, they look far more dangerous than the market is giving them credit for.
Leipzig, meanwhile, have three wins in eight since the mid‑season break and still look like a side searching for rhythm. They’re good in moments, but nowhere near consistent enough to be favourites here.
And maybe, just maybe, this is heart ruling head after a winning midweek punt, but above even money with draw insurance still feels like the value play of the round.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet @ 2.21 on Stake.com. 1 unit.
FFS – Gamble responsibly
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