If there’s one thing I love about this stage of the season, it’s that the table finally starts telling the truth. The pretenders fade, the contenders harden, and the clubs who’ve been kidding themselves since August suddenly realise they’re in a relegation scrap with no plan, no identity, and no divine intervention coming to save them. It’s beautiful chaos, and it’s where the smart punters, the ones who don’t get carried away by vibes and badge‑snobbery, make their money.
Two fixtures stand out to me this weekend. Two games where the market hasn’t quite caught up with reality. Two games where the narrative is lagging behind the football. And two games where, frankly, I’m rubbing my hands together like a man who’s just found a forgotten £20 note in his jeans.
All odds for the weekend tips provided by Stake.com.
Nottingham Forest v Crystal Palace
Premier League, City Ground, Nottingham, UK, 3pm CET, Sunday 1st February
Prices: 2.02 Nottingham Forest, 3.65 Draw, 3.85 Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have gone off the rails since Oliver Glasner announced he’s leaving, and doing so in a way that suggests he’s had enough, hasn’t helped matters. When a manager checks out mid‑season, it usually tells you everything about the atmosphere behind the scenes.
Forest, by contrast, look like a side who’ve finally exhaled. They’ve given themselves a bit of breathing room, and that release of pressure is showing in their performances. And let’s be honest: they’ve got some genuinely exciting players who are starting to click.
James McAtee has added real sharpness in the final third. Morgan Gibbs‑White remains the heartbeat of the team. Elliott Anderson brings tenacity and control at the base of the midfield and Callum Hudson‑Odoi looks confident again and is affecting games consistently.
There’s a proper core there, young, energetic, technically strong, and they’re beginning to play with the freedom that was missing earlier in the campaign.
And yes, it’s a known fact that I don’t rate Palace too highly at the moment. Meanwhile, Sean Dyche, one of the underappreciated gems of English football, has shown exactly what a clear plan and a bit of structure can do for a struggling side. Forest aren’t Dyche’s team, of course, but the point stands: clarity matters. Palace don’t have it. Forest increasingly do.
With Palace drifting and Forest finding their feet, I’m backing the home side.
Tip: Nottingham Forest to win @ 2.02
Aston Villa v Brentford
Premier League, Villa Park, Birmingham, UK, 3pm CET, Sunday 1st February
Prices: 2.03 Aston Villa, 3.65 Draw, 3.65 Brentford
This one is simple: if Villa are serious about staying in the title conversation, and they absolutely should be, then this is the type of game they must win.
Yes, they had that wobble after Arsenal slapped them 4–1 in December. Every team has a moment where the wheels look like they’re coming off. But the sign of a proper side is how they respond, and Villa have responded like a team with ambition. They beat Newcastle with authority, then followed it up with a gritty, come‑from‑behind 3–2 win over RB Leipzig in Europe. That’s character. That’s resilience. That’s a squad that believes in itself.
Brentford are having a strong season, no denying it. They’re organised, they’re awkward, and they’re always capable of giving the big boys a scare. But Villa have too much firepower, too much control in midfield and too much confidence right now. Unai Emery has them playing with a clarity and purpose that Brentford will struggle to disrupt.
If Villa want to keep the pressure on the leaders, this is non‑negotiable. And I think they get it done.
Tip: Aston Villa to win @ 2.03. 1 unit.
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