It’s been a bruiser of a week for Tommy the Punter. Two Sunday stinkers and a midweek misfire in Arsenal v Chelsea, a bet that went against every instinct, and got punished for it. But Tommy’s not sulking. He’s sharpening the pencil, binning the noise, and going to war with four fresh weekend tips from across the globe. No fluff, no fear, just football logic and a hunger to bounce back.
All odds provided by Stake.com.
Auckland FC v Sydney FC
A-League, Go Media Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand, 5am CET, Saturday 7th February
Prices: 1.79 Auckland FC, 3.65 Draw, 4.10 Sydney FC
I’m keeping this one simple. Auckland and Sydney are level on points, both blowing hot and cold, and both watching Newcastle Jets tear past them at the top. But Sydney have the awkward mid‑afternoon kick-off in New Zealand to deal with, and their last away day ended in a 4–0 hiding at Melbourne Victory. That sticks with you. Auckland at home just feel the more reliable side to edge a tight one, and after the week I’ve had, I’m backing the angle that actually makes sense.
Tip: Auckland to win @ 1.79. 1 unit.
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga, Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg, Germany, 3.30pm CET, Saturday 7th February
Prices: 4.40 Wolfsburg, 4.10 Draw, 1.76 Borussia Dortmund
Wolfsburg have been absolutely dire since the winter break, one win in six, no rhythm, no confidence, and they couldn’t even put away rock‑bottom Heidenheim in their last home game. The pressure’s piling up, and this is the worst possible time to be facing a Dortmund side who’ve suddenly remembered they’re supposed to be contenders.
Dortmund sit second, six points off an all‑conquering Bayern, and they know a win here cuts that gap to three. That’s all the motivation they need. Domestically they’ve hit three goals in each of their last five games, the goals are coming from everywhere, and when they’re in this kind of mood, they’re a nightmare to contain.
Wolfsburg just don’t have the form or the belief to live with that right now. I’m backing Dortmund to be too strong, too hungry, and too clinical.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund to win @ 1.76. 1 unit.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Premier League, American Express Stadium, Brighton, UK, 3pm CET, Sunday 8th February
Prices: 2.00 Brighton, 3.65 Draw, 3.75 Crystal Palace
I’m going to keep tipping against Palace because right now they look like an absolute car crash of a club. Yes, they brought in Strand Larsen on Deadline Day and he’s a solid striker, but all the noise between the manager and the board just feels wrong. That kind of tension leaks onto the pitch.
Brighton, meanwhile, will be desperate to pile the pressure on in front of their own fans, and even money on the Seagulls feels like good value to me. Palace look fragile, unsettled, and there for the taking, so I’m sticking with the angle that’s been staring us in the face for weeks.
Tip: Brighton to win @ 2.00. 1 unit.
Liverpool v Manchester City
Premier League, Anfield, Liverpool, UK, 5.30pm CET, Sunday 8th February
Prices: 2.40 Liverpool, 3.75 Draw, 2.80 Manchester City
This is the big on. If Arsenal get the job done against Sunderland on Saturday, City walk into Anfield nine points behind the Gunners, but that’s the kind of pressure that usually brings out their absolute best. When it really matters, they’re the team you want to be with.
They battered Newcastle in midweek, and being in the Carabao Cup Final has been their launchpad in the league so many times over the years. Semenyo has hit the ground running, Marc Guehi has brought some calm to the back line and Haaland’s goal drought isn’t going to last forever. You can feel something brewing.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are a basket case. Yes, they beat Newcastle at home last week, but they’re not up to much either this season, and that stopped a run of some truly awful league results. Ekitike is the one bright spark in a dark, dark season, and I do fancy them to nick a goal, but keeping City out is a completely different proposition.
City smashed them 3–0 at the Etihad in November, and with the title race on the line, I can see another high‑scoring win for Guardiola’s side. This is where they usually show their teeth, and I’m backing them to do it again.
Tip: Manchester City to win & both teams to score @ 4.20. 1 unit.
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