Things didn’t go Tommy’s way at the weekend as both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest failed to win. Villa against ten-man Brentford somehow contrived to lose, while Forest were ahead only to suffer a red card of their own that hampered their chances of victory. Still, you can’t keep a good punter down, so Tommy has dusted himself off and delves into the midweek action with three Carabao Cup tips and one selection from down under in the a-league.
All odds provided by Stake.com.
Arsenal v Chelsea
Carabao Cup Semi-Final Second Leg, Emirates Stadium, London, UK, 9pm CET, Tuesday 3rd February
Prices: 1.66 Arsenal, 3.90 Draw, 4.60 Chelsea
Mikel Arteta’s side are at their best when the tempo rises. With runners flooding the box from wide areas and midfielders arriving late, Arsenal don’t just create chances, they create waves of them. When opponents try to match that intensity, the game stretches, transitions multiply, and defensive structure starts to wobble.
Chelsea are exactly the type of team to force that chaos. They won’t sit in and admire Arsenal’s patterns. They’ll press, counter, and throw numbers forward, especially knowing they need to make a statement. That urgency should turn this into a ferocious, end-to-end contest rather than a tactical chess match.
Both teams have attacking quality that thrives in broken phases. Quick wingers, adventurous full-backs, and midfielders happy to shoot from the edge of the area all point toward repeated goalmouth action.
If recent Arsenal matches have fooled bettors into expecting control, this fixture feels like the correction: open spaces, high pace, and three goals or more.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72. 1 unit.
Manchester City v Newcastle
Carabao Cup Semi-Final Second Leg, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, 9pm CET, Wednesday 4th February
Prices: 1.77 Manchester City, 3.85 Draw, 4.00 Newcastle
Manchester City to beat Newcastle feels like one of the clearer reads of this round. Newcastle have been one of the season’s big disappointments, struggling to find rhythm and consistency, while City arrive with clarity of purpose. At this stage, the Carabao Cup represents their most realistic path to silverware, and Pep Guardiola is too astute to let that opportunity drift.
Expect a strong, near full-strength City side. When Guardiola senses a trophy within reach, rotation gives way to control. That should spell trouble for a Newcastle team already facing a steep task. Chasing the game at the Etihad is a dangerous assignment, and the visitors may have little choice but to open up in search of momentum.
That scenario plays directly into City’s hands. Space in transition is a gift to their forwards, and recent form suggests they are ready to punish it. Rayan Cherki has been electric between the lines, knitting play together and creating chances at will, while Antoine Semenyo’s direct running and finishing touch have added another cutting edge to City’s attack.
If Newcastle commit bodies forward, City’s quality and composure should take over. A controlled performance, clinical in the final third, looks set to carry them another step closer to Wembley.
Tip: Manchester City to win @ 1.77. 1 unit.
Macarthur v Perth Glory
A-League, Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney, Australia, 9.35am CET, Friday 6th February
Prices: 2.07 Macarthur, 3.50 Draw, 3.20 Perth Glory
Macarthur’s season has gathered momentum without much noise, but the numbers tell a compelling story. Just one defeat in their last ten matches has quietly turned them into genuine contenders, and if they harbour ambitions of a serious push for the Premier’s Plate, this is exactly the type of game they must win.
Consistency has been their calling card. They’ve become difficult to break down, disciplined in possession, and increasingly confident in the final third. That balance has allowed them to control matches rather than simply react to them, a key trait of sides chasing silverware.
Perth Glory, by contrast, have struggled to find the same stability, particularly away from home. That should give Macarthur belief that they can dictate the tempo from the outset and force Perth onto the back foot.
A major reason for Macarthur’s rise has been the form of Mitch Duke. His movement, work rate, and finishing have given the Bulls a reliable focal point in attack, and he’s consistently found ways to influence games when it matters most.
With momentum, form, and motivation on their side, Macarthur will see this as a chance to extend their unbeaten run and take another firm step toward an unlikely but increasingly realistic leaders shield challenge.
Tip: Macarthur to win @ 2.07. 1 unit.
FFS – Gamble responsibly
The Top 10 FA Cup Upsets of All Time: Glory, Agony and Pure Football Madness
FA Cup upsets are synonymous with English football. The world’s oldest cup competition has always been English football’s great leveller,…
16 Legendary Transfers: The Most Influential Deadline Day Squad Ever
It’s one of the most popular days in the sporting calendar. Deadline Day transfers have produced some of football’s most…
AFCON 2025: Morocco’s World Cup Dry Run
Stepping into Morocco during AFCON 2025, one thing was immediately clear: this was no ordinary tournament. This was a high-stakes…