It’s time to show my mettle, and this week we’re looking at some Champions League and Championship tips to help get back on the wagon. Last weekend was one of those classic Tommy specials where the optimism peaked early and then fell off a cliff. Adelaide got things started beautifully on Friday, a 4–0 hammering of Perth that had me strutting around the living room like I’d cracked the code to football itself. And then, as always, reality arrived with a steel chair.
Real Madrid, the “confident bet”, decided to lose to Osasuna of all teams, while Dortmund, whom were a bit of a value pick that I had the draw insurance on, could only manage a 2-2 at Leipzig. By Sunday night I was staring at my betslip like it had personally wronged me.
But we go again. Fresh slate, fresh chaos, and three fixtures this week that have caught my eye for all the right (and probably wrong) reasons.
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Wrexham v Portsmouth
Championship, Racecourse Ground, Wrexham, UK, 8.45pm CET, Tuesday 24th February
Prices: 2.13 Wrexham, 3.29 Draw, 3.70 Portsmouth
Wrexham come into this flying after that 5–3 demolition of Ipswich, and you can feel the momentum building as they chase down a play‑off spot. This is a crucial fixture for those hopes, and the Racecourse has been the kind of place where teams get swallowed whole when Wrexham start fast.
Josh Windass is absolutely on fire at the moment, everything he touches looks like turning into a chance, and Wrexham are simply too strong through the middle right now. Even with Ben Sheaf missing, they’ve got enough control, energy and bite in that area to dictate the tempo and pin Portsmouth back.
Pompey are in decent form as they try to pull clear of the relegation scrap, but this is their third straight away game, and that’s the sort of schedule that drains your legs whether you admit it or not. Against a side that plays with Wrexham’s intensity at home, that matters.
I’m siding with the team with momentum, goals, and a midfield that looks ready to bully another opponent.
Tip: Wrexham to win @ 2.13. 1 unit.
Bayer Leverkusen v Olympiakos
Champions League, BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany, 9pm CET, Tuesday 24th February
Prices: 1.80 Bayer Leverkusen, 3.92 Draw, 4.17 Olympiakos
Leverkusen already did the hard part in the first leg, winning 2–0 away, and that’s exactly why the 1.80 here looks generous. Olympiakos have no choice but to come out swinging — they need goals, and they need them early, which is basically an open invitation for Leverkusen to do what they do best: sit, absorb, and then slice you apart on the counter like it’s a training drill.
The Greek side aren’t exactly flying either. Two wins from their last five domestically isn’t the kind of form you want when you’re heading into the home of one of Europe’s most coherent, ruthless teams. Meanwhile, Leverkusen at home are a different beast entirely, structured, confident, and happy to suffocate you for 90 minutes. Patrick Schick being in great form only adds to the appeal; he’s the kind of striker who thrives when the game becomes stretched and desperate.
This is the value play in the 1X2 markets in the Champions League this week. The draw is the only real danger, classic “job already done” territory, but Leverkusen don’t really do complacency. They manage games like adults. They control tempo. They punish mistakes. And they’ve shown all season that they don’t need to be at full throttle to win these types of fixtures.
Add in the fact that Olympiakos’ away record in Europe is historically shaky, and you’ve got a spot where the price simply hasn’t caught up with the gap in quality, momentum, and tactical maturity.
Tip: Leverkusen to win @ 1.80. 1 unit.
Stoke City v Oxford United
Championship, Bet365 Stadium, Stoke, UK, 8.45pm CET, Wednesday 25th February
This is probably the most confident bet of the week. Oxford can’t buy a goal right now, three goals in their last nine games and none in their last four, and a cold Wednesday night at Stoke is the absolute last thing they need. If you’re struggling for ideas in front of goal, the bet365 Stadium is where hope goes to die.
Stoke aren’t exactly flying themselves, but they don’t need to be. They beat Oxford 3–0 away back in November, and this feels like the perfect fixture to drag themselves back into form. The Potters are physical, organised, and perfectly happy to turn this into a trench war, which is the one type of match Oxford look completely unequipped to handle right now.
A win is crucial for Stoke to keep their faint play‑off hopes alive, and this is the kind of game where desperation actually works in your favour. Oxford’s legs look gone, their confidence is shot, and this is their worst possible matchup at the worst possible time.
I’m treating this as the week’s anchor.
Tip: Stoke to win @ 1.79. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.
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