I took $1,600 off the bookies at the weekend and took out my own sofa in the process as all three of my free tips at the weekend won! Fulham stuck it to Spurs, I took flight, and the landing was catastrophic. I’ve been buzzing ever since, making profitable football tips is key, and with midweek fixtures rolling in, I’m not letting the momentum cool for a second.
All odds provided by Stake.com.
Newcastle v Manchester United
Premier League, St James’ Park, Newcastle, UK, 8.30pm CET, Wednesday 4th March
Prices: 2.55 Newcastle, 3.75 Draw, 2.65 Manchester United
Manchester United’s trip to Newcastle comes at a moment where the two clubs feel like they’re heading in completely different directions, and the market hasn’t fully caught up to it yet. Newcastle look stuck in a season that never really got going: the intensity that defined them has faded, the injuries have piled up, and the league form has dipped to the point where it feels like they’re prioritising Europe just to salvage something meaningful. At St James’ Park they’ll still have their moments, but the spark isn’t there, and when they’re asked to go again midweek, the drop‑off is obvious.
United, meanwhile, suddenly look like a functioning football team. Michael Carrick has come in and given them structure, tempo and purpose, and the transformation has been immediate. They’re pressing with conviction, moving the ball quicker, and playing with a confidence that’s been missing for years. Benjamin Šeško has been the headline act, powerful, direct and ruthless, but the real shift is in the collective threat. Mbeumo stretching defences, Cunha drifting into pockets, Amad finally looking like he belongs at this level, and Bruno Fernandes pulling strings with far more freedom now that the system around him actually works.
Newcastle have struggled badly against teams who can play through midfield with any kind of speed, and right now United are doing exactly that. The only hesitation is the venue, which is why the draw‑no‑bet angle makes sense: you’re backing the form side with protection built in. At these prices, the momentum, the football and the matchup all point the same way.
Tip: Manchester United Draw No Bet @ 1.92. 1 unit.
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Premier League, Villa Park, Birmingham, UK, 8.30pm CET, Wednesday 4th March
Prices: 2.75 Aston Villa, 3.60 Draw, 2.50 Chelsea
Chelsea’s midweek trip to Villa Park comes at a moment where the two sides feel like they’re living completely different realities. Villa’s season has unravelled at alarming speed: the defeat to Wolves didn’t just kill off any lingering title fantasy, it dragged their top‑five credentials into the spotlight and exposed just how stretched this squad has become. The midfield has been gutted by injuries, the backline that once looked rock‑solid is now creaking under pressure, and the whole team is carrying the body language of a group running on empty. They look tired, short of ideas, and increasingly vulnerable against sides who can move the ball with pace and purpose.
Chelsea, by contrast, arrive with a sense of momentum and a performance against Arsenal that suggested something is finally clicking. The talent has always been there, it’s the consistency that’s been missing, but the way they moved the ball, pressed, and created chances at the weekend felt like a team starting to believe in itself again. When Chelsea’s attacking players are confident, they can overwhelm anyone, and against a Villa side struggling to control games, they should get plenty of opportunities to do damage.
Villa Park is never an easy place to go, which is why the draw‑no‑bet angle is the sensible play. It gives you protection if Villa manage to cling on, but still lets you ride the momentum of a Chelsea side trending upwards at exactly the right time. And truthfully, if you wanted to take them outright, you wouldn’t be mad, this is a matchup that suits them, and a win would give their Champions League push a serious shot in the arm.
Tip: Chelsea Draw No Bet @ 1.82. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.