Welcome to a column of chaos, hope, questionable decision‑making — otherwise known as my weekend tips. I’m Tommy the Punter, here to sift through the fixtures, trust the gut ignore the noise and try to find a bit of value in a sport that loves to make fools of us all.
Some weeks the ball bounces our way, some weeks it smacks us in the face, but as punters, we’re nothing if not brave.
All odds in the weekend tips provided by Stake.com
Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory
A-League, Coopers Stadium, Adelaide, Australia, 9.35am CET, Saturday 17th January
Prices: 2.85 Adelaide United, 3.65 Draw, 2.22 Melbourne Victory
This one’s a head-scratcher, why are Adelaide the outsiders? They’re at home, they’ve got the crowd, and they’re facing a Victory side that just threw in a stinker to basement side Western Sydney. More importantly, Victory’s defence is in tatters: Jason Davidson, captain Roderick Miranda, and Brendan Hammill are all out injured. That’s a huge blow to their backline.
Victory have only won once outside Melbourne all season, and Coopers Stadium is never an easy place to visit, especially for the Original Derby. At these odds, Adelaide are the value play of the weekend.
Tip: Adelaide United to win @ 2.85. 1 unit.
Manchester United v Manchester City
Premier League, Old Trafford, Manchester, UK, 1.30pm CET, Saturday 17th January
Prices: 3.60 Manchester United, 4.00 Draw, 1.96 Manchester City
City are chasing the quadruple and look relentless. Even with Michael Carrick in the dugout, United are still United, fragile, inconsistent and miles off the pace. The last time they beat City at Old Trafford? January 2023. Since then, it’s been a blue wave careering through Manchester.
Yes, City are carrying some defensive injuries, Ruben Dias is out with a hamstring issue and Josko Gvardiol is sidelined long-term with a broken shinbone. But even with a makeshift backline, they’ve got the structure, control and midfield dominance to keep United at arm’s length, not to mention their attacking talent. Pep Guardiola has so many options and they’re all firing, which will strike fear into the red half of Manchester
And let’s be honestm United just don’t have the attacking quality to punish even an understrength City defence. City will dominate the ball, suffocate the game and pick their moment, with Erling Haaland fancy to score. This has all the makings of another routine derby win for the Citizens.
Tip: Manchester City to win @ 1.96. 1 unit.
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
Bundesliga, Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 17th January
Prices: 5.00 RB Leipzig, 4.90 Draw, 1.57 Bayern Munich
Bayern are on a mission. They’re unbeaten, ruthless and chasing a historic invincible season. They opened the campaign by smashing Leipzig 6–0, and they’ve scored at least two goals in every Bundesliga match so far; 66 goals in 17 games. That’s a record-breaking pace, and it’s not slowing down.
Yes, it’s a short price, but you won’t get many chances to back Bayern at this kind of value in the Bundesliga. Leipzig are talented, but Bayern’s depth, form, and focus make them irresistible. Lump on.
Tip: Bayern Munich to win @ 1.57. 2 units.
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