Some tips come to you gently. Some arrive with a polite knock. And some smash through the door like a drunk mate returning from the kebab shop at 3am. This week’s midweek tips? Oh, it’s the third category. I’ve stared at these fixtures long enough to start hallucinating yellow walls and Italian ultras. Let’s get into it.
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Sydney FC v Auckland FC
A-League, Leichhardt Oval, Sydney, Australia, 9am CET, Tuesday 17th February
Prices: 2.86 Sydney FC, 3.55 Draw, 2.43 Auckland FC
I’ve always had a soft spot for Sydney — one of the world’s great cities, and I’ll argue that with anyone. The last time I found myself at Leichhardt was after a 12‑pub crawl that started with the best intentions and ended with me realising I’d probably peaked somewhere around pub five. Glorious weather, glorious pubs, glorious chaos. But even through the festive fog, I remember the atmosphere. Sydney at Leichhardt just feel different.
A few weeks back, I tipped Auckland and they got the job done, but this is a different equation entirely. The Kiwi side are inconsistent when they cross the Tasman, and Sydney know a win here throws a proper cat among the pigeons in the race for the Premiers Plate, and the all‑important Finals scheduling.
They’re a big price. Too big. Suspiciously big. And when the bookies get weird, Tommy gets interested.
Tip: Sydney FC to win @ 2.86. 1 unit
Borussia Dortmund v Atalanta
Champions League Play-off Round, Westfalenstadion, Dortmund, Germany, 9pm CET, Tuesday 17th February
Prices: 2.12 Borussia Dortmund, 3.54 Draw, 3.55 Atalanta
Let me tell you something about Dortmund. I once booked a lads weekend there, six months in advance, flights sorted, hotel sorted, the whole group chat buzzing, and only a week before did we realise we’d committed the cardinal sin. International break.
No game. No Yellow Wall. No Haaland, no Reus, no nothing. Just a stadium tour, a guide who looked like he’d rather be anywhere else, and me and the boys necking Brinkhoff’s by the stein until we ended up in a strip club that definitely wasn’t on TripAdvisor.
But even on that cursed weekend, you could feel the place. The Westfalenstadion isn’t a stadium, it’s a living organism. It breathes. It growls. It judges you.
And this week, it’s going to absolutely swallow Atalanta whole.
Dortmund have started 2026 like they’ve been shot out of a cannon. Yes, Inter caught them napping at home, but Atalanta aren’t Inter. They’re not even Inter’s shadow. They’re a fun side, a chaotic side, but they’re not built to survive 80,000 screaming lunatics in black and yellow.
And then there’s Serhou Guirassy, a man currently scoring goals like he’s trying to complete a side quest. He’s on fire, he’s confident, and he’s the exact type of striker who bullies Italian defences into existential crisis.
Anything above even money? That’s not a bet, that’s a public service announcement.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund to win @ 2.12. 1 unit.
AC Milan v Como
Serie A, San Siro, Milan, Italy, 8.45pm, Wednesday 18th February
Prices: 2.25 AC Milan, 3.26 Draw, 3.14 Como
Inter are setting a pace in Serie A that would make Usain Bolt sweat, which means Milan have no choice but to keep winning. And the thing is… they are. Relentlessly.
They haven’t lost a league game since opening day. They’re scoring from everywhere — Nkunku drifting into pockets, Rabiot arriving late like a French sledgehammer, Loftus‑Cheek playing like he’s finally realised he’s built like a Greek statue.
They beat Como 3–1 a month ago without breaking stride, and nothing about this fixture suggests a different outcome. Milan at home, in this form, with this momentum, in a must‑win spot?
It’s not complicated. It’s not philosophical. It’s Milan. At home. Against Como. Next?
Tip: AC Milan to win @ 2.25. 1 unit
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.
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