Norway v England gave us a tidy profit, but Argentina v Switzerland went straight off a cliff. And honestly, until Breel Embolo’s absolutely inexplicable red card, the Swiss were cruising. They were favourites in‑play to qualify, had the game exactly where they wanted it… then one moment of madness flipped the whole thing. Once it hit extra time with ten men, Argentina were always going to walk through the door.
It wasn’t a bad read, just a bad moment, and that’s tournament football, but now we’re down to the final four, and there’s no doubt the best four teams fill the semi-final berths. We should have two games to remember.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
France v Spain
World Cup Semi-Final, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas, 9pm CET, Tuesday 14th July
Prices: 2.38 France, 3.15 Draw, 3.10 Spain
The best attack in the tournament up against the best defence, and it has every hallmark of a classic. It actually reminds me a lot of the Champions League final a month ago, elite firepower versus elite organisation, and ten players from that game could feature here. With this much quality on the pitch and a World Cup final on the line, nobody is giving an inch.
Spain have had France’s number recently. At Euro 2024 they beat an out‑of‑sorts French side 2–1 with Lamine Yamal stealing the show, and last summer the two of them went completely off the rails in that absurd 5–4 Nations League match. The scoreline doesn’t tell the story: Spain were 5–0 up after 55 minutes in one of the great international performances before switching off and letting France back in. Two knockout wins in two years for Spain, but France are favourites here and I think that’s fair.
Deschamps’ men dealt with a genuinely excellent Morocco side last time out, while Spain squeaked past a fairly limited Belgium. Spain will dominate the ball, they’ll try to pass France into submission, but once France win it back they can fire it straight into that elite front line, the likes of which Spain simply haven’t faced yet.
The key individual battle is Lucas Digne up against Yamal. Yamal got nothing out of Nuno Mendes in the last‑16, so the Aston Villa full‑back will have spent the week studying that tape. Whoever wins that duel might swing the whole tie. On the other side, Ivan de la Fuente may finally unshackle Nico Williams from the start. His minutes have been managed, but this is the moment. If Williams and Yamal can pin France’s full‑backs, France’s transitions become far easier to control and their ability to get Olise, Doue (or Barcola), Dembélé and Mbappé into the game becomes a much bigger challenge.
It’s a brutal game to call. It’ll be tactical, and nothing like the chaos of last summer’s 5–4. I said last week I was close to a hedging position and that’s exactly what I’m doing here. The winner of this tie wins the tournament. With Spain already in the book at 5.50, I’m adding France to lift the trophy to give myself the strongest possible trading position heading into the final.
For anyone not sitting on outrights, the simple play is Kylian Mbappé anytime. He’s scored in every game of the tournament and looks like a man on a mission to bury the ghosts of 2022. He hasn’t been available at even money all tournament to bag one, and his output has actually improved as the opposition has got better, three goals and three assists across Senegal, Norway and Morocco being evidence of that.
He won’t be hauled early with a five‑day break behind him, so you’re getting a full run of him peppering the Spain goal. And because we’re in a strong trading spot, I’m happy to throw a couple of darts at the big prices: the brace, and the goal‑and‑assist. He’s done both against Spain and Morocco in the last year, and with the way he’s playing, he’s simply too big a price to ignore. Ambitious, yes, but justified.
Match tips: Kyllian Mbappe to score anytime @ 1.96. 1.25 units; Kyllian Mbappe to score 2+ @ 4.70. 0.5 units; Kyllian Mbappe to score & assist @ 9.40. 0.25 units
Outright tip: France to win the World Cup @ 2.50. 3 units.
Already advised: Spain to win the World Cup @ 5.50. 5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.