After what felt like the longest club season in living memory, domestic titles wrapped, continental crowns handed out, and every last ligament stretched to breaking point, we finally arrive at the big one. A glorious, unprecedented festival of football across three North American nations. Six weeks of chaos, drama, and punting opportunity. Expanded format, new entrants, old powerhouses. Strap in, animals, my World Cup Wagers are here!
Now, you can make a case for any of the top ten in the betting. Beyond that? Forget it. No miracle runs, no fairytales. I’ve run the sims, I’ve spun the plates, and the dark horses just don’t gallop this time. But don’t worry, I’ll have a left‑field bets column for those of you who need the dopamine hit of juggling five accas at once. For now, let’s stick to the serious contenders.
Supreme Scandinavians have a Sniff
This is the side I keep circling back to. On paper, they’re stacked, and I can’t wait to watch them. Erling Haaland is the headline act, a wrecking ball who terrifies defences before he’s even laced his boots. But it’s not just him, Alexander Sørloth and Jørgen Strand Larsen are proper deputies, both capable of nicking goals when Haaland is double‑marked. Martin Ødegaard finished the season flying at Arsenal, dictating play with that velvet left foot, though the heat in North America might test his durability.
Sander Berge is the glue in midfield, smooth operator, keeps the ball ticking. Out wide, Oscar Bobb and Antonio Nusa are the kind of young, fearless talents who can turn a game in a flash. And defensively? Rock solid. Just five goals conceded in qualifying, in a group that included Italy. That’s not luck, that’s structure.
Now, I’ll admit the value may have gone, Norway are a football hipster’s dream, the kind of side every tactical blogger and data nerd has already latched onto. But even with the odds trimmed, I’m still backing them each‑way. The path is brutal, yes, but talent wins matches, and this lot have it in spades. Too good, too dangerous, too well‑balanced to ignore.
Two Giants, One Question Mark
The Netherlands arrive with a spine that looks solid enough on paper, Van Dijk marshalling the back, De Jong orchestrating midfield, and a sprinkling of attacking talent. But when you strip it back, there’s a nagging doubt: do they have the cutting edge to break down the best defences? EURO 2024 flattered them, a semi‑final run built on a kind draw rather than genuine dominance.
Germany profile in a similar way. Flickers of quality, plenty of pedigree, but a tournament record that’s been grim in recent years. Knocked out in the group stage last time, undone by Spain & Portugal since. Their group in North America is no gift either, with Ecuador and Ivory Coast both capable of bloodying noses. If they don’t top it, the draw could turn ugly fast.
Both sides have the names, both sides have the history, but when you look at the balance of power in 2026, they feel more like obstacles for others to overcome than genuine contenders themselves.
South America’s Shadow
Argentina arrive as defending champions, Messi still capable of moments, and the midfield actually looks decent on paper. But for me, they’ve had their time in the sun. The balance isn’t quite there to repeat the trick against Europe’s finest, and the aura of 2022 feels like it’s fading.
Brazil, meanwhile, are curiously shorter in the market than Argentina, and there’s no logic to it. They were miles off their rivals in qualifying, and the scars of 2014 still haunt them. Neymar’s presence once again threatens to be more distraction than inspiration, and the Seleção have struggled to come to terms with their World Cup demons ever since that Belo Horizonte collapse.
Both giants carry history, both carry talent, but in 2026 they look more like shadows of themselves. At the prices, I’m leaving them out.
Portugal’s PSG factor gives them huge shout
This is the one I keep circling in the book. Portugal look primed to outrun their odds and I’m firmly in their corner. Yes, they were tepid at EURO 2024 and fell to France on penalties, but I’m willing to forgive that. Roberto Martínez has them organised, and this squad is stacked in all the right areas.
The midfield is the jewel. Vitinha has blossomed into one of Europe’s most complete operators, press‑resistant, clever in tight spaces, and able to dictate tempo with a maturity beyond his years. He’s the metronome that keeps Portugal ticking. Alongside him, João Neves is the firecracker: tenacious in the tackle, fearless on the ball, and with the engine to cover every blade of grass. Together they give Portugal a balance of silk and steel that most nations would kill for.
Add Bruno Fernandes, English player of the year, alongside Bernardo Silva and Rúben Neves, and you’ve got a carousel of creativity and control.
Up front, Cristiano Ronaldo looms large, the Hollywood ending to his international career is written all over this tournament. But it’s not just nostalgia: Gonçalo Ramos is a handful, Rafael Leão a nightmare for defenders, Pedro Neto and Francisco Conceição dangerous wide options.
At the back, they ooze class. Rúben Dias and Matheus Nunes are Manchester City regulars, Nuno Mendes marauds down the flank, Gonçalo Inácio adds balance. It’s a side that’s been together long enough to know their roles, and they’ve already tasted success with the Nations League.
The group draw is friendly, DR Congo and debutants Uzbekistan won’t scare them, and the path looks manageable. No excuses. Great squad, quality coach, favourable conditions. Portugal are my strong fancy to go deep, and at the prices, they’re the value play of the tournament.
Channel Neighbours Close, but Missing the Final Piece
England arrive with talent to burn but questions everywhere. Thomas Tuchel’s squad selection was headline‑grabbing, Palmer, Foden, Gibbs‑White, Bowen, Trent, Wharton, Maguire all left out, yet that only underlines the depth at his disposal. Harry Kane shattered records at Bayern, Declan Rice and Elliott Anderson had brilliant seasons, and the attacking options around Kane are stacked: Saka, Rashford, Rogers, Gordon, Watkins.
But defensively the cracks are obvious. John Stones barely played, Nico O’Reilly and Ezri Konsa aren’t the best full‑backs in the field, and the recent friendlies against Uruguay and Japan showed worrying signs. Tuchel’s tactical nous might paper over some gaps, but the Three Lions don’t look strong enough to contend with the likes of Portugal or Spain. At the prices, I’m happy to leave them out.
France, joint favourites, are terrifying on paper but combustible underneath. Their group is savage, Norway, Senegal, Iraq, and while winning it sets up a smoother path, slipping could spell chaos. My modelling has them bumping into Spain in the semis, and that’s a problem: they’ve lost to their neighbours twice in the last two years in tournament football.
Mbappé is the talisman but also the risk. After a rocky season at Real Madrid he feels like a ticking timebomb, if he’s flying, France are unstoppable; if he sulks, the whole squad combusts. The goalkeeping situation is shaky: Maignan is vulnerable on crosses, the understudies unproven. The attack looks insane on paper, but the numbers don’t flatter, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé has only seven international goals, while stalwarts Griezmann and Giroud are gone. Desire Doué and Michael Olise are class acts, but overall France are still searching for the right formula.
France ooze talent, but they’re fragile. England have depth, but they’re flawed. Both are priced like heavyweights, but for me they’re under scrutiny rather than locks for glory.
European Champions to Conquer the World
And so we arrive at the side I can’t get away from. Spain. Brilliant, effervescent, terrifying Spain. EURO 2024 champions, swaggering into North America with a squad that looks like it was assembled in a lab.
The sheer quality is staggering. David Raya doesn’t even make the squad, that tells you everything about the goalkeeping depth. At the back, Marc Pubill and Marcos Llorente were superb in Atlético Madrid’s Champions League run, Pau Cubarsí plays with composure and skill beyond his years, and Marc Cucurella was one of the few Chelsea players to emerge with credit. Aymeric Laporte adds experience, Eric García arrives fresh off a La Liga title.
Midfield is where the wow factor explodes. Rodri, Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo, Martín Zubimendi, Fabián Ruiz, all of them would walk into any other team in the tournament. Spain have them all. It’s obscene.
Out wide, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal broke through at EURO 2024 and now have two more years of seasoning, a frightening prospect. Ferran Torres had a productive season, Mikel Oyarzabal remains a reliable international scorer. The options are endless, the balance perfect.
The group is kind: Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay. Only the latter likely to test them. That sets up a smoother path than France, and my modelling has them meeting Les Bleus in the semis, a matchup they’ve already dominated twice in the last two years.
Spain look like the complete package. Depth everywhere, chemistry already proven, youth and experience blended seamlessly. They blew Europe away, and I think they’re the ones to stop in North America.
Tips:
Spain to win the World Cup @ 5.50. 5 units.
Portugal to win the World Cup @ 9.00. 2 units each-way.
Norway to win the World Cup @ 26.00. 1 unit each-way.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s Tipping Record here.