I’ll level with you straight away: this isn’t the place for your mortgage money. These are the niche bets that keep you entertained between the serious punts, the ones that make you feel like a genius when they land and a complete lunatic when they don’t. Stakes low, spirits high, method in the madness. That’s the Tommy way.
Let’s get stuck in.
Bruno Fernandes vs Florian Wirtz — A Match Bet Mismatch
We’ll start simple. I’ve already tipped Bruno Fernandes each‑way for the Golden Boot, and nothing I’ve seen has put me off.
He’s coming off a monster season, he’s Portugal’s heartbeat, and he’s playing in a group with Uzbekistan and DR Congo, two sides who will give up chances like they’re handing out flyers.
Now look at the other lad in this match bet: Florian Wirtz. Lovely player, but he’s had an ordinary domestic season and he’s sharing the spotlight with Havertz, Musiala, Beier and half of Germany’s under‑25 population. Oh, and Germany’s group is a minefield with Ecuador (dark horses) and Ivory Coast.
One of these men is walking into a buffet. The other is walking into a fistfight. Bruno wins this match bet all day.
Group E looks a Safe Bet to Forecast
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Ecuador are the dark horses nobody wants to talk about. People fancied them in Qatar and they flopped, but they’ve clearly levelled up, finishing second in CONMEBOL qualifying is no joke.
Germany should top the group, but Ecuador can absolutely get past Ivory Coast and Curaçao to finish second. They’re organised, athletic, and nasty to play against. Germany 1st, Ecuador 2nd, get it in the book.
The Whipping Boys
First up, New Zealand. I still can’t get over that 4–0 loss to Haiti in the warm‑ups. They followed it with a more respectable 1–0 defeat to England, but the Haiti result is the one that tells the truth. Now they walk into a group with Belgium, Egypt and Iran, three sides who will all fancy themselves to take maximum points. I just cannot see the All Whites, or the “All Black Team”, as they’re now bizarrely branded, getting anything out of this. Zero points looks the most likely outcome.
Next, Cape Verde, who are an even bigger price to leave the tournament empty‑handed. They’ve drawn Spain and Uruguay, which is already a nightmare, so the bet essentially boils down to: will Cape Verde get a result against Saudi Arabia? I don’t think they will. They’re a tidy side in African qualifying, but this is a different level entirely, and the market hasn’t quite caught up.
Finally, Panama, who were one of the great whipping boys of 2018, losing 3–0, 6–1, and 2–1 in their group. This time they face England, Croatia, and Ghana, three nations who all know they must beat Panama to have any chance of progressing. It’s a horrible group for them, and history suggests they’ll struggle again. Another team I’m happy to back for zero points.
A Moroccan Talent Well Worth Following
A proper fun market this, and Ayoub El Kaabi is exactly the sort of player you want onside. He was excellent at AFCON, he’s coming off a brilliant season with Olympiakos where he scored 21 goals in 38 games, and he’s been just as sharp for Morocco with nine in 17 since early 2025. He’ll get plenty of chances in this group, Haiti will give up opportunities for fun, and Scotland can be got at too, so he’s a tidy little addition to the portfolio. Nothing crazy, just a smart, low‑stakes play on a striker in form and in the right fixtures.
A Flyer in Group D
Group D is the most open group in the entire tournament, and it feels like nobody has quite figured out what to do with it. That’s exactly why I’m siding with Turkey, who always seem to save their best (and worst) for major tournaments. They’re inconsistent, chaotic, occasionally brilliant, perfect ingredients for a group like this. Alongside them, I’m taking a swing at Paraguay, who I think can get a result against the USA in the opener. The pressure on the hosts will be enormous, and Australia’s squad doesn’t have the global quality to bully their way through. It’s a flyer, but a fun one: Turkey and Paraguay in a dual forecast.
A French Wildcard
This one is pure vibes, but sometimes vibes are all you need. Michael Olise is being whispered about in Ballon d’Or conversations, which is outrageous on the surface but not completely insane when you watch him play. He bagged a hat‑trick in France’s final warm‑up against Northern Ireland, and if Mbappé underperforms, rotates, or picks up a knock, Olise is the most likely to step straight into the talisman role. It’s a tiny‑stakes punt, nothing more, but the upside is enormous. A proper Tommy flyer.
And That’s the Lot
The pre‑tournament madness is locked in. Now we sit back and wait for the chaos to begin in Mexico on Thursday night. It’s going to be a wild ride. Good luck if you’ve played, and I’ll be back every day with fresh previews, fresh angles, and fresh ways to make (or lose) money.
See you there. Yeehaa.
Tips:
Bruno Fernandes to outscore Florian Wirtz @ 1.85. 2 units.
Group E forecast: Germany/Ecuador @ 2.10. 2 units.
New Zealand to lose all Group G matches @ 3.00. 1 unit.
Panama to lose all Group L matches @ 3.50. 1 unit.
Ayoub El Kaabi to be top Morocco goalscorer @ 3.75. 1 unit.
Cape Verde to lose all Group H matches @ 4.25. 1 unit.
Group D dual forecast: Paraguay/Turkey @ 5.00. 1 unit.
Michael Olise to be top France goalscorer @ 7.00. 0.5 units.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s World Cup Outright and Golden Boot tips now.