I’ll be honest, I’m still reeling from yesterday’s World Cup wagers. Uruguay were a disgrace. Iran weren’t much better. Two sides I trusted, two sides who repaid that trust by folding like a $2 deckchair. And to cap it off, Cape Verde and New Zealand only went and picked up points, killing two of my pre‑tournament bets stone cold dead. Not even a flicker of life. Brutal scenes.
So yes, we need a turnaround. A big one. And thankfully, Day Six gives us two fixtures that actually make sense: France v Senegal, where the value is obvious if you know what you’re looking for, and Norway’s long‑awaited return to the World Cup, a game that looks tailor‑made for a statement performance.
Let’s get into it.
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France v Senegal
World Cup Group I, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, USA, 9pm CET, Tuesday 16th June
Prices: 1.48 France, 4.40 Draw, 6.70 Senegal
France open their campaign against Senegal in what looks like a routine assignment for the tournament favourites, but the matchup is far more dangerous than the odds suggest. Senegal are built for transition football and they’ve got the exact profiles to hurt you. Ismaïla Sarr can burn you down the flank, Iliman N’Diaye finds pockets and creates chaos, and Sadio Mané still carries that threat where one loose touch can turn into a real moment.
France will approach this the way they always do in tournament football: tight, controlled, low‑risk. It’s efficient and usually effective, but that structure leaves space, and Senegal are one of the few sides who can genuinely punish you if you give them grass to run into.
There’s also a bit of history here. Senegal famously beat France in the opening match of the 2002 World Cup, and while that doesn’t matter tactically today, it does underline that they won’t be intimidated.
France should still edge it, but Senegal will get chances. Enough to score, in my view. And with Michael Olise priced at over 2/1 to score anytime, the market is sleeping on him, but I’ve already got him in the top scorer book, so I’ll stick to the main angle.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 2.02. 1 unit.
Iraq v Norway
World Cup Group I, Boston Stadium, Foxborough, USA, 12am CET, Wednesday 17th June
Prices: 15.00 Iraq, 7.40 Draw,1.18 Norway
Norway finally return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998, and they couldn’t have asked for a kinder opener. Iraq will work hard, they’ll be organised, and they’ll try to frustrate, but the gulf in quality is obvious, and this is exactly the sort of matchup where Norway tend to flex.
I’ve had Norway circled as my sneaky each‑way play for the tournament, and this is the kind of game that sets the tone. Their qualifying campaign was outstanding, they’ve got goals all over the pitch, and Erling Haaland tends to feast on weaker opposition. Give him space, give him mismatches, give him a back line that can’t live with his physicality, he’ll take full advantage.
Graham Arnold’s teams are usually tough to break down, but it often comes at the expense of attacking intent. If Iraq sit deep and try to survive, Norway will eventually find the gaps. If they try to play, they’ll get picked off.
Either way, this feels like a comfortable opener for the Norwegians.
Tip: Norway to win to nil @ 1.79. 1 unit.
Argentina v Algeria
World Cup Group J, Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City, USA, 3am CET, Wednesday 17th June
Prices: 1.40 Argentina, 4.40 Draw, 8.90 Algeria
This is one of the more intriguing fixtures of the round, but also one of the hardest to call with any conviction. The big unknown is Lionel Messi, if he doesn’t start, it completely changes the dynamic of Argentina’s attack, and I wouldn’t be touching any goalscorer markets until the line‑ups drop.
Algeria are no mugs. Riyad Mahrez is still their headline act, but Houssem Aouar gives them real technical quality in midfield, and physically they’re a handful. They won’t be intimidated, and they won’t just sit in and hope for the best.
Argentina should still have enough, but without clarity on Messi and with Algeria being a genuinely decent outfit, this is one I’m happy to watch rather than force a bet on.
Austria v Jordan
World Cup Group J, San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, USA, 6am CET, Wednesday 17th June
Prices: Austria 1.34, 5.25 Draw, 8.55 Jordan
I’ve been absolutely miles off with the Middle Eastern sides so far. Qatar holding Switzerland, Saudi Arabia drawing with Uruguay, Iran failing to beat New Zealand, every time I think I’ve got a read, they flip the script.
So while Austria should beat debutants Jordan, I’m not rushing to lump on at the price.
Austria qualified superbly, topping their group and conceding just four goals. They’re structured, disciplined, and efficient. Jordan, on paper, look like a side who’ll struggle at this level. Recent defeats to Switzerland, Colombia and, most worryingly, Tunisia don’t inspire confidence, especially after Sweden dominated Tunisia yesterday.
Jordan do like to attack, though, and that could open the game up in Austria’s favour. The angle I like is Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime. He’s got three in his last three internationals and tends to arrive in the right areas when Austria face weaker opposition.
Tentative, but it makes sense.
Tip: Marcel Sabitzer to score anytime @ 2.96. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.