Freiburg v Aston Villa
Europa League Final, Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul, Turkey 9pm CET, Wednesday 20th May
Prices: 2.43 Freiburg, 3.30 Draw, 3.10 Aston Villa; To Lift the Trophy: 1.73 Freiburg, 2.08 Aston Villa
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Apologies for last week’s absence, there’s not much that can drag me away from my betting activity, but on this occasion duty called. After my last column though, maybe that’s a good thing, and I can come in with my Europa League final tips with fresh eyes and a slightly calmer head. Sometimes stepping away for a week gives you a bit of perspective, and if there’s ever a game that needs a clear mind, it’s a European final.
The Europa League final this year pits clubs from two footballing powerhouses against each other. It’s Germany v England, and that alone is enough to get the neutrals excited. Aston Villa have had a strong domestic campaign and, while they’d always want more of a cup run, Champions League qualification would have always been the goal for Unai Emery’s men. They achieved that on Friday night with a thumping 4–2 win over Liverpool, a result that felt like a proper statement. It set them up perfectly for this week’s final against Freiburg, who finished seventh in the Bundesliga and arrive here with a mix of confidence and realism.
European finals have a rhythm of their own. Neutral venue, one‑off game, nerves jangling, players trying to settle themselves in the first ten minutes while the crowd is still figuring out what kind of night it’s going to be. It’s the kind of stage where the big clubs lean on experience and the smaller ones hope the chaos breaks their way. And make no mistake, there will be chaos, it’s a Europa League final, not a corporate brunch. These games have a habit of producing heroes you didn’t expect and mistakes you absolutely did.
Freiburg had a decent season but were unable to match last year’s fifth‑placed finish, ending up eight points fewer. That may have been partially down to their run in this year’s competition, but there’s no doubting they’ve been excellent in Europe, overcoming difficult fixtures against Genk, Celta and Braga to reach this stage. The latter of those opponents finished above Freiburg in the league phase on goals scored, but they were the highest‑ranked team in the competition and Freiburg still haven’t beaten anyone better than them. This final looks a tough ask. They’re well‑coached, organised and brave, but they’re stepping into deeper water here.
Villa, on the other hand, have transformed into one of English football’s powerhouses in the last few years, mainly thanks to their Spanish manager, and they will fancy their chances of ending their 31‑year wait for silverware here. The Midlands outfit have defeated Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Bournemouth in the Premier League this season, so their ability to rise to the occasion is not in question.
And then there is Unai Emery himself. This man is the master of this competition, he’s won it four times and also took Arsenal to the final in 2019. There is no one with a CV more suited to delivering victory here. He prepares for these nights like he’s been studying them since childhood. With the gulf between the Premier League and Bundesliga as big as it’s ever been, Emery’s record in the Europa League and Villa’s attacking potential, they look worth backing to get the job done in 90 minutes.
Villa’s best player this season has been Morgan Rogers. The midfield man will likely start in England’s No.10 at the World Cup. He scored a beauty and made another in the win against Liverpool, and having come through Manchester City’s academy, he looks made for the big occasion. He plays with that mix of arrogance and calm that only the top talents have. I’ll be having a dart at him to get both a goal and an assist in this one, because he’s a gem of a player and he’s starting to realise it.
I do think Freiburg will trouble the scoresheet, they scored two in both fixtures against Bayern and had a confidence‑boosting 4–1 win over Leipzig in their final domestic game of the season, but Villa have too many weapons. Too much quality, too much experience, too much Emery. They will overpower their opponents in what should turn into a comfortable win and a famous night for the club in Istanbul.
Europa League Final Tips:
Aston Villa to win in 90 mins @ 1.68. 3 units.
Morgan Rogers to score @ 3.00. 1 unit.
Morgan Rogers to assist @ 3.25. 1 unit.
3-1 Correct Score @ 14.00. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s Tipping Record here