The Conference League didn’t pan out as I would have hoped, Crystal Palace secured an impressive victory but Ismaila Sarr wasn’t involved in their match-winning goal and they somehow weren’t able to add a second that would have won me my correct score bet. You can’t win them all but hopefully we will in this final column of the club season. It’s an incredible Champions League final, and it’s a tournament that’s been good to me in recent months, so let’s try and go out on a high with my Champions League final tips.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
PSG v Arsenal
Champions League, Puskas Arena, Budapest, Hungary, 6pm CET, Saturday 30th May
Prices: 2.31 PSG, 3.35 Draw, 3.25 Arsenal; To lift the trophy: 1.66 PSG, 2.18 Arsenal
The climax of the European season always feels a bit like the last scene of a great film — you know it’s coming, you know it’s going to hit you in the chest, but you still sit there wide‑eyed when it arrives. And this year, the curtain falls in Budapest, a city that feels purpose‑built for drama. Two clubs from two of Europe’s great cultural capitals descend on Hungary with history on their minds: PSG, the most exhilarating attacking side on the continent, and Arsenal, the most disciplined, structured, suffocating defence in Europe. It’s the unstoppable force against the immovable object, and for once that cliché actually fits.
Before we get lost in tactics and trauma and predictions, let’s just acknowledge something: these are the two best teams in Europe. Full stop. No caveats, no “on their day”, no “if X is fit”. So whatever happens, let’s enjoy the spectacle. Finals like this don’t come around often.
Now, the funny thing is, and I know this goes against the grain of the hype machine, I don’t see this being the goalfest some people are salivating over. These two met in the semi‑finals last season, and PSG were miles ahead of an Arsenal side that had run out of legs, ideas, and, crucially, centre forwards. A 3–1 aggregate win barely told the story; PSG were ruthless, then went on to win the final 5–0. But this year? This year is different.
Arsenal have Gabriel back, and his partnership with William Saliba has been the bedrock of everything they’ve achieved. They’ve conceded nothing cheap, nothing soft, nothing stupid. There’s more depth in midfield, Viktor Gyökeres has settled well, and Kai Havertz, who was missing last year, gives them a different dimension entirely. Arsenal have a real chance to banish the ghosts of 2006 and write the chapter they’ve been threatening to write for almost three decades.
But then you look at PSG’s attack and your stomach does a little somersault. The speed, the movement, the sheer violence of their transitions, it’s terrifying. They move the ball like they’re trying to set fire to the pitch. Arsenal will need to be perfect. Not good. Not solid. Perfect.
And the elephant in the room: PSG are rested. Their domestic league was a gentle jog around the park, and Luis Enrique has rotated like a man playing Football Manager on easy mode. No excuses if this becomes a physical war. Arsenal, on the other hand, have the mental edge, they finally got over the line domestically, and that changes a team. It loosens them up.
So what decides it? For me, it’s the man I’ve been shouting about for months: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The best player in the world right now, a big‑game monster, a footballer who bends matches to his will. My gut says this will be tight, tense, maybe even cagey, and that the Georgian genius provides the moment. Or two.
So the play is simple: Kvaratskhelia to score and assist, PSG to lift the trophy, and a little tickle on a low‑scoring PSG win in 90. Finals are won by stars, and this one has the brightest of the lot.
Tips:
PSG to lift the trophy @ 1.66. 3 units.
PSG to win & under 2.5 goals @ 4.69. 1 unit.
Kvichka Kvaratskhelia to score including extra time @ 2.80. 1 unit.
Kvichka Kvaratskhelia to assist including extra time @ 3.70. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s Tipping Record here