The weekend treated me well with Perth Glory landing a lovely punt at a tasty 2.55 on Saturday afternoon. At the time of writing, I’ve still got Man Utd running for me, but they’re drifting like a barge and my confidence has understandably wavered. Nevertheless, the boss had me on the phone demanding the Champions League Semi Final tips, and who am I to deny the people?
We’ve got two titanic tussles in store. PSG and Bayern promises to be an absolute humdinger, while Atletico Madrid v Arsenal… well, best not to talk about that actually. There’s money to be made though, and I’ve got bets lined up for both ties that I very much like the look of. Off we go.
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PSG v Bayern Munich
Champions League, Parc des Princes, Paris, France, 9pm CET, Tuesday 28th April
Prices: 2.30 PSG, 3.90 Draw, 2.80 Bayern Munich
For my money, these are the two best sides in the competition and this would have been a fitting Final. That’s an injustice, but the silver lining is that we get two matches between these modern greats instead of one. PSG have come through Chelsea and Liverpool in the knockouts, two sides who’ve spent most of the season trying to remember what competence looks like, while Bayern swatted aside Atalanta before surviving an epic with Real Madrid.
Both teams have been able to narrow their focus. Bayern have already wrapped up the Bundesliga, and PSG are six points clear in Ligue 1, which allowed them to rest half the cast of Avengers: Endgame at the weekend. When two elite sides arrive fresh, prepared and fully loaded, you get the kind of fixture that makes you forget to blink.
There’s no value in the goals markets here, and that’s no surprise. Bayern have scored a frankly ridiculous 113 league goals, but they’ve also conceded 32, and now they’re staring down a PSG attack that moves like it’s been designed in a lab. Ousmane Dembélé is playing like he’s plugged into a power source the rest of us don’t have access to, Désiré Doué is turning into a superstar before our eyes, and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia remains one of the most intoxicating footballers on the planet to watch. Bayern have their own artillery, of course, but this is a knife fight where both sides brought bazookas.
I could go on for hours about these two, but the tip is simple: PSG edge the first leg. Maybe 2–1, maybe 3–1, but something that leaves the tie alive heading back to Bavaria. Paris have the sharper cutting edge right now, and Bayern’s defensive wobbliness is hard to ignore.
Tip: PSG to win & both teams to score @ 3.20. 1 unit.
Atletico Madrid v Arsenal
Champions League, Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain, 9.00pm CET, Wednesday 29th April
Prices: 2.75 Atletico Madrid, 3.20 Draw, 2.65 Arsenal
Where Paris looks set for a classic, this one feels like a completely different sport. To be fair, both sides are elite defensively, and there’s beauty in that. But if PSG–Bayern is a fireworks display, Atletico–Arsenal is two men locked in a shed with blunt tools and no lightbulb.
The layers can barely split them, but I’m surprised Arsenal are marginal favourites. Yes, they beat Newcastle at the weekend, but that was their first league win since mid-March, and they look absolutely spent after the season they’ve had. The legs are heavy, the ideas are fading, and the spark that carried them through winter has dimmed.
Atletico, meanwhile, look like a side who’ve shoved every egg they own into the Champions League basket. They overcame Barcelona in the last round and, crucially, they have more firepower right now. Julian Álvarez, Antoine Griezmann and Ademola Lookman is a far more potent trio than anything Arsenal can field if Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze remain doubts, and at this stage, all three are exactly that.
With Arsenal misfiring, lacking cohesion and running on fumes, I can only side with the home team. Diego Simeone will be prowling the touchline like a lion with a wounded gazelle in its jaws. Even with draw insurance, a shade below evens feels like value.
Tip: Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet @ 1.95. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.