Midweek was exactly the start we wanted. Both teams scored, Kvaratskhelia did the business, and the European Super Cup served up a tidy little green tick to open the campaign. A very pleasant beginning, let’s hope the Community Shield tips keep that momentum rolling.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Arsenal v Manchester City
FA Community Shield, Millennium Stadion, Cardiff, UK, 4pm CET, Sunday 16th August
Prices: 2.60 Arsenal, 3.40 Draw, 2.75 Manchester City; To lift the trophy: 1.80 Arsenal, 1.90 Manchester City
Arsenal and Manchester City both come into the curtain‑raiser with squads that look like they’ve only just been reassembled after being scattered across the globe. Haaland has only just returned to training, and under normal circumstances he’d be the first name on the bet slip. With William Saliba missing, the Norwegian gains an even bigger edge, he’s the one player Arsenal simply don’t have an answer for. The good news from a punting perspective is simple: if he doesn’t start, the bet gets refunded, so we can tip him without fear. If he does start, he’s a play. Always.
Both sides have had players returning late from international duty, which usually means a slow burn. Rhythm takes time, patterns take time, and early‑season matches often look like they’re being played with the handbrake on.
Arsenal still have defensive steel. They had the best defensive record in the Premier League last season, and even without Saliba, Gabriel, David Raya and the rest form an elite unit. They don’t give much away, even when they’re not fully tuned.
City, meanwhile, are navigating change. A new manager, Rodri’s future uncertain, and doubts over Haaland, Guehi and the midfield balance. Without Rodri especially, City lose their metronome, the one who knits everything together. It’s hard to gel instantly when your spine is wobbling.
Arsenal’s two new arrivals, Christos Tzolis and Bruno Guimarães, already have minutes under their belt, which gives them a slight familiarity advantage. Not huge, but enough to matter in a game where cohesion is currency.
Put all that together and it points to a cagey, uncertain contest. Three of the last five league meetings between these two have been draws, and with both sides still piecing themselves together, a low‑scoring draw feels like the most sensible angle.
Tip: Draw & under 2.5 goals @ 3.99. 0.5 units; Erling Haaland to score anytime @ 2.55. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.