I called it before the game and I’m doubling down now, whoever came through France v Spain was always going to take the whole thing. And after what we saw in Dallas, this World Cup is finished. Hand Spain the trophy, and hand me my winnings. La Roja delivered a masterclass, France looked completely out of ideas, and once Adrien Rabiot picked up that eighth‑minute booking they never recovered. They barely registered a shot, and that was down to Spain’s tactical stranglehold more than anything else.
England or Argentina will be fascinating in the final, but before we get there we’ve got the small matter of the second semi. A rivalry for the ages, and Lionel Messi facing England for the very first time in his career. That’s the stage, that’s the story, and it’s going to be chaos, here are my England v Argentina wagers.
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England v Argentina
World Cup Semi-Final, Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta, USA, 9pm CET, Wednesday 15th July
Prices: 2.70 England, 2.85 Draw, 3.00 Argentina
England’s clash with Argentina in Wednesday’s World Cup semi-final is being sold as a coin-flip, with bookmakers marginally favouring England to win in 90 minutes and only just odds-on for them to qualify. That price ignores how fragile Argentina’s route here has actually been.
Messi has carried them, and it’s showing. Argentina have needed extra time in two of their three knockout games and trailed in both Cape Verde and Egypt before late rescues, with Enzo Fernández’s stoppage-time winner against Egypt the standout example. Even in the quarter-final win over Switzerland, Argentina were pegged back to 1-1 before a red card and a Julián Álvarez wonder-strike bailed them out in extra time. That’s three straight knockout games where the result was in serious doubt deep into the second half, and Messi, now 39, has been at the centre of almost everything good they’ve produced.
The supporting cast hasn’t stepped up. Lautaro Martínez’s first goal of the tournament came from the penalty spot against Jordan, and his second arrived on the counter against a Swiss side already down to ten men. Álvarez went scoreless until his 112th-minute strike, also against ten men. Strip out those two moments and Argentina’s front two have offered remarkably little against sides still at full strength, which is exactly the version of Argentina England will face.
England, by contrast, have already solved harder puzzles. They beat Mexico at the Azteca with ten men and shut Erling Haaland out completely in the quarter-final, with Jude Bellingham now the first player since Maradona in 1986 to score a brace in consecutive World Cup knockout games. Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon have combined for six assists between them, and with Argentina having largely abandoned width for a narrow 4-4-2 diamond to feed Messi, England’s wide areas should be there for the taking. Harry Kane and Bellingham occupying Argentina’s centre-backs, with Declan Rice and England’s midfield tasked with squeezing Messi’s space, is a matchup England can win.
The bench tips it further. Marcus Rashford, Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Morgan Rogers give Thomas Tuchel match-changing options that Argentina simply can’t match from their bench, especially if the game is stretched into a fourth successive draining knockout tie for Scaloni’s side.
Bookmakers have England only marginally favoured to win in 90 minutes and just odds-on to qualify, prices built around the expectation of a tight, cagey affair. That expectation is reasonable if Argentina were fresh, but they haven’t looked fresh once in the knockout rounds. That’s why England -1 on the handicap is the more interesting way into this game: it pays you for backing the more complete, better-rested team to finally punish a side that has been living dangerously for three straight matches, rather than just backing them to edge a close one.
Tip: England -1 @ 5.00. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.