This week I curse one of the great punting defeats of my career. It didn’t start well, Atletico losing to Barcelona put me on the back foot straight away, but PSG dragged me out of the gutter at Anfield and suddenly the night was alive again. Then came Bayern-Madrid on Wednesday, and for once the chaos was working in my favour.
Madrid led 3–2 with ten men and I’m ahead, and when Luis Díaz bent one into the far corner to make it 3–3, it actually made things even sweeter. I’m sitting on Madrid DNB and the draw. I’m sitting on a winner either way. I’m already mentally spending the profit.
Then football did what football does. Michael Olise, 94th minute, heartbreak. A huge return wiped out in a single swing of a left boot. Everyone else was calling it a classic; I was staring at the screen like I’d just watched my wallet burst into flames.
But the only cure for a punting wound is more punting, and this weekend delivers a full-blown 24‑hour puntravaganza across the EPL Weekend and in Australia. The games are massive, the stakes are high, and all eyes will be on the Etihad, where I’ve got a strong fancy. Let’s get it.
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Chelsea v Manchester United
Premier League, Stamford Bridge, London, UK, 9.00pm CET, Saturday 18th April
Prices: 2.20 Chelsea, 3.60 Draw, 3.15 Manchester United
Manchester United will be absolutely fuming after the nature of their defeat to Leeds on Monday, and with the way the table is shaping up, this is a huge chance to take a step towards Champions League football. I’m not pretending Michael Carrick’s side are world-beaters, but they’re a damn sight better than Chelsea, who look rotten to the core. Their capitulation to Manchester City last week stank of a team that’s checked out mentally, physically, spiritually, pick your lane.
United, despite the Leeds stumble, still look hungry. Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha, these are big-game players who will relish the chance to twist the knife. Chelsea look like they’re already on the beach, and I’m more than happy to oppose them.
Tip: Manchester United Draw No Bet @ 2.30. 1 unit.
Adelaide United v Macarthur
A-League, Cooper’s Stadium, Adelaide, Australia, 7.30am CET, Sunday 19th April
Prices: 2.20 Adelaide United, 3.90 Draw, 2.70 Macarthur
By the time this kicks off, Macarthur will probably know their season is over, with a top‑six finish no longer mathematically possible. Adelaide, meanwhile, are flying. Eight unbeaten, one loss in thirteen, and one of the most consistent sides in the country.
They’re strong at home, they’re hard to beat, and they’ve just gone toe‑to‑toe with the two best teams in the league in consecutive weeks. With a push for third place on the line and a lively home crowd behind them, I’m more than happy to take them at odds against early doors on Sunday.
Tip: Adelaide United to win @ 2.20. 1 unit.
Everton v Liverpool
Premier League, Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, UK, 3pm CET, Sunday 19th April
Prices: 3.25 Everton, 3.30 Draw, 2.20 Liverpool
David Moyes is a genuine candidate for manager of the season. What he’s done since returning to Merseyside has been nothing short of superb, and this is a real chance for a rare derby win. Everton are finishing the campaign strongly; Liverpool, on the other hand, can’t wait for it to end.
Miserable exits from the FA Cup and Champions League have piled the pressure on Arne Slot, and the last thing he needs is a hostile cross‑town trip for the first derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The crowd will be right on top of Liverpool from the first whistle, and Everton’s hunger, energy and organisation can absolutely drag this into a dogfight. A draw feels very live, and so does the upset.
Tip: Everton Draw No Bet @ 2.30. 1 unit.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Premier League, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, 5.30pm CET, Sunday 19th April
Prices: 1.82 Manchester City, 3.70 Draw, 4.35 Arsenal
This is one of the biggest Premier League games in years. Arsenal arrive as league leaders, but City, despite looking ragged for stretches of the season, now resemble a side ready to go full treble‑mode again. Marc Guehi has been a masterstroke of a January signing, Rayan Cherki is playing like the second coming of Zidane, and Erling Haaland loves scoring against Arsenal. Behind them is Donnarumma, one of the world’s best, and overseeing it all is Pep Guardiola, who treats this part of the season like his personal playground.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are doing their best to convince everyone they’re still the team from three months ago. But actions speak louder than words, and their last five performances since that emotion‑draining win over Everton have been flat. Creativity has dried up, the defence has wobbled, and last weekend’s nervy display against Bournemouth, constantly rolling it back to David Raya like a hot potato, screamed of fear.
You cannot show fear against this City side. They feed on it. Even if Arsenal rediscover their best, I can’t see them getting anything here. And if they don’t, the title race becomes a straight-line sprint with absolutely no margin for error.
Tip: Manchester City to win @ 1.82. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.