So here we are. Eight teams left. Ninety‑six matches down. And somehow, despite the antepost carnage, Casa del Tommy is still standing. Spain are alive, Harry Kane is alive, and my sanity is… well, let’s not push it. The last day of the last‑16 was absolute bliss: Messi scored, Messi assisted, Argentina won, and Switzerland dragged me through a penalty shootout that aged me about seven years. Then FIFA, in their infinite cruelty, gave us a day with no football. No football. At a World Cup. I nearly called the police.
But the upside is I’ve had a full day to lock myself in the bunker, crunch the numbers, rewatch the games, and get properly stuck into the first quarter‑final. And it’s a beauty.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
France v Morocco
World Cup Quarter Final, Boston Stadium, Foxborough, USA, 10pm CET, Thursday 9th July
Prices: 1.58 France, 3.95 Draw, 5.80 Morocco
Let’s get one thing straight: this is the best quarter‑final on paper. France, the tournament favourites, against a Morocco side who haven’t technically lost in 34 matches (yes, yes, the AFCON final was overturned, don’t @ me). But I’m going to say something that will upset a few people: Morocco’s record at this tournament looks better than it is.
They finished second in a soft group. Brazil were dreadful, Scotland were Scotland, and Haiti were fun but chaotic. Morocco drew with Brazil and scraped past Scotland 1–0. Then they needed a last‑gasp equaliser to drag the Netherlands into extra time, followed by one of the luckiest penalties you’ll ever see in a shootout. And yes, they beat Canada 3–0, but two of those goals came when Canada were throwing the kitchen sink forward in desperation. It’s a good run, but it’s not the unstoppable juggernaut people are pretending it is.
Now they run into France, a team who have looked like they’re playing a different sport at times. They blew away everyone in their group, including fellow quarter‑finalists Norway and a Senegal side who literally beat Morocco on the pitch in that AFCON final. Paraguay tried to drag France into a street fight, and to be fair, they nearly succeeded, but Mbappé’s penalty settled it and the French walked away with their dignity intact.
Individually, Morocco ooze talent. Hakimi is a menace at both ends. Yassine Bounou is doing his usual “I’m the best goalkeeper in the world for a month” routine. El Aynaoui and Bouaddi are being linked with every top club in Europe. Brahim Díaz is a proper operator, Bilal El Khanouss helped Stuttgart into the Champions League, and Ismael Saibari, the Bayern‑bound star boy, has been their best attacker. But here’s the hammer blow: Saibari is a major doubt for this one. If he doesn’t play, that’s a seismic loss. France’s defence will sleep a lot easier if they’re dealing with Soufiane Rahimi instead of the Bayern man.
Speaking of France’s defence, they’ve been superb. Yes, they switched off in that basketball match with Norway, but Mike Maignan has been excellent, and William Saliba, and I’ll die on this hill, has been the best centre‑back at the tournament. They’ve kept clean sheets against Paraguay and a dangerous Sweden attack, and while Mbappé, Olise, Dembélé and Doué get the headlines, the back line has quietly been elite.
The midfield? They’ll have their biggest test trying to get the ball off Spain in the semi‑final, but that’s a problem for future Tommy. For now, the speed at which France move the ball from back to front is going to be a nightmare for Morocco. The North Africans will give a good account of themselves, they always do, but France can simply out‑football them. Too much quality, too much depth, too much control.
All the form lines point the same way. Morocco are good, but they’re not Paraguay. They won’t bully France. They won’t drag them into chaos. And with the amount of attacking weapons France have, they should have enough to get through this and book their semi‑final spot.
Tip: France to win & under 3.5 goals @ 2.14. 1 unit.
Check out For Foot Sake’s Alternative Team of the World Cup here.