Last week’s international tips were one of those punting slogs where you wake up on Monday morning, stare at the ceiling, and wonder whether the footballing gods are having a laugh at your expense. Italy winning to nil against Northern Ireland was the only sliver of comfort — a tiny, polite pat on the back in a weekend that otherwise felt like being shoved down a flight of stairs. The other World Cup qualifiers turned into goalfests, completely ignoring my carefully crafted logic, and then on Saturday morning Australia decided to shut down Cameroon with ruthless efficiency. I expected chaos; they served up a tactical chokehold. Cheers, lads.
So yes, it wasn’t great. Not catastrophic, not reputation‑ending, but certainly one of those weeks where you put the notebook down, take a deep breath, and mutter “back to the drawing board” like a manager who’s just watched his back four forget how to defend. But that’s punting. You dust yourself off, you bin the noise, and you go again — and this midweek slate actually offers a couple of selections that feel, dare I say it, pretty straightforward.
Let’s get stuck in.
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England v Japan
Friendly, Wembley Stadium, London, UK, 8.45pm CET, Tuesday 31st March
Prices: 1.52 England, 4.01 Draw, 5.51 Japan
Trusting England after that shocking display against Uruguay on Friday feels like walking back into a restaurant that gave you food poisoning. But this is where the Tuchel factor kicks in. Thomas Tuchel is not a man who tolerates sloppiness, and he certainly isn’t a man who shrugs off a poor performance. If anything, he’s probably spent the last 72 hours pacing around St George’s Park like a man possessed, drawing arrows on whiteboards and muttering about distances between the lines.
And crucially, the big guns are coming back.
Harry Kane looks set to lead the line, which immediately raises the floor of this team. Jude Bellingham will be back knitting everything together, Morgan Rogers brings that directness England lacked last time out, and Cole Palmer is in the kind of form where he could nutmeg a traffic cone and make it look like art. Behind them, the defence is usually reliable, and Jordan Pickford — for all the memes — is a rock for England. He’s the one constant in a sea of rotating full‑backs and tactical tweaks.
Japan are tidy, disciplined, and technically sharp, but they’re a step down from Uruguay in terms of physicality, intensity, and individual match‑winners. England had an impeccable record in World Cup qualifying, and Tuchel’s teams — historically — respond to embarrassment with a kind of cold, surgical control. The win‑to‑nil angle appeals because England don’t often concede, and with the cavalry returning, this feels like a get‑right game.
I’m backing the Three Lions to steady the ship and do it without Pickford having to pick the ball out of his net.
Tip: England to win to nil @ 2.50. 1 unit.
Sweden v Poland
World Cup Play Off, Friends Arena, Solna, Sweden, 8.45pm CET, Tuesday 31st March
Prices: 1.99 Sweden, 3.38 Draw, 3.87 Poland
Now this one has the potential to be absolute box‑office. Sweden were brilliant against Ukraine on Thursday, and Viktor Gyökeres finally remembered he’s allowed to score goals, rattling in a hat‑trick with the sort of ruthless finishing Arsenal fans have been begging to see all season. If he brings even half of that swagger into this tie, Sweden will cause Poland all sorts of problems.
But Poland aren’t turning up to be extras in Sweden’s highlight reel. They’ve got their own narrative, their own desperation, and their own talisman. Robert Lewandowski is staring down what is probably his last chance to make a World Cup, and if there’s one thing we know about Lewa, it’s that he can drag a team into a game by sheer force of will. Poland have the tools to hurt Sweden — pace out wide, physicality through the middle, and a striker who still finishes like a machine.
Both teams’ best form of defence is attack, and based on last week’s games, neither of them are in the mood to sit back and play risk‑averse football. The pressure is huge, but sometimes that actually opens games up — one early goal and the whole thing becomes a basketball match.
The bookies see BTTS as the less likely outcome. I disagree. This feels like a punch‑for‑punch contest.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 2.00. 1 unit.
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