Been a fantastic week. My two A-League tips won last weekend thanks to my time honoured system of backing New Zealand clubs at home to Australian clubs in early kick offs. Then in midweek my Over 4.5 Goals and Over 5.5 Goals bets came in as PSG and Barcelona went to town on each other. Four winners from four. Let’s see if we can keep the run going this weekend.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
A-League, AAMI Park, Melbourne, Australia, 10.40am CET, Saturday 24th October
Prices: 2.48 Melbourne Victory, 3.50 Draw, 2.65 Melbourne City
Let’s start with the Melbourne Derby. Both sides opened the season with defeats across the Tasman last weekend, with Victory losing to Wellington Phoenix and City coming up short against Auckland FC. It means neither arrives here with much momentum, but it also means neither can really afford another setback.
There’s never much to split these two and that’s especially true at the moment. Both squads have plenty of quality, both have ambitions of being around the top end of the table, and both will feel they underperformed in Round 1.
This fixture is always fiery and the atmosphere should be superb, but that’s exactly why I think it could be tighter than many expect. Neither side will want to hand local bragging rights to their rivals and the fear of losing can sometimes outweigh the desire to really go for it.
With two evenly matched teams desperate to get points on the board, I’m happy to side with the draw here. I genuinely can’t believe the price is as big as it is.
Tip: Draw @ 3.50. 0.75 units.
Liverpool v Brighton
Premier League, Anfield, Liverpool, UK, 2pm CET, Sunday 25th October
Prices: 2.07 Liverpool, 3.80 Draw, 3.20 Brighton
I bet with my eyes and, so far this season, Brighton have looked the more impressive side than Liverpool.
The Seagulls come into this one on the back of a thumping 5-0 win over Crystal Palace and look full of confidence, while Liverpool still seem to be finding their feet. There are obvious quality players in the squad, but they’re conceding too many goals and Andoni Iraola still has work to do both defensively and in figuring out how to get the very best out of Florian Wirtz.
With Dominik Szoboszlai sidelined, Liverpool look a little short of rhythm in midfield. Brighton may have turned in a disappointing European performance in midweek, but overall they look like a well-oiled machine with goals coming from all over the pitch.
I fancy Brighton to score a couple here, and that makes the draw no bet market look a very appealing play.
Tip: Brighton draw no bet @ 2.22. 1 unit.
Manchester United v Bournemouth
Premier League, Old Trafford, Manchester, UK, 2pm CET, Sunday 25th October
Prices: 2.03 Manchester United, 3.75 Draw, 3.35 Bournemouth
Things are starting to unravel at Manchester United.
Bournemouth head into this one full of confidence after a famous 3-0 win over AC Milan, while United were embarrassed in a 4-1 thrashing at Como. The mood around the club looks toxic right now. First, Lisandro Martinez publicly questioned the club’s leadership, then Bruno Fernandes appeared to turn on manager Michael Carrick. When players start pointing fingers, it’s rarely a good sign.
Confidence looks shot to pieces and the pressure is mounting with every passing week. By contrast, Bournemouth are playing with swagger, belief and a real sense of momentum.
The Cherries haven’t lost to United since January 2023 and, on current form, it’s hard to see that changing here. If Bournemouth produce anything like the level they showed against Milan, this could be the match that finally brings the curtain down on Carrick’s tenure at Old Trafford.
Tip: Bournemouth to win @ 3.35. 0.75 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.