The A-League, the glorious A-League, my weekend Premier League tips went south but when my punting went to the Southern Hemisphere, boy, was I rewarded. My time honoured strategy of backing Australian teams away in New Zealand paid dividends as both Melbourne clubs were put to the sword by their kiwi counterparts for 2.47 & 3.05 priced winners. I’m back to where I was at the start of the season, more or less now, and it shows to stick to your guns in punting. Strategies are made for a reason and they’ll pay off in the long run.
We now head back to Europe for an epic week of Champions League matches, and I’ve got my eye on the two matches involving the champions of France, Spain, Germany and England. What a feast!
Odds provided by Stake.com.
PSG v Barcelona
Champions League, Parc des Princes, Paris, France, 9pm CET, Tuesday 20th October
Prices: 2.39 PSG, 4.40 Draw, 2.47 Barcelona
PSG v Barcelona is the kind of tie that makes you sit forward before a ball is even kicked. If you like goals, chaos and pure football theatre, this is your match. Everything about these two screams over, and everything they’ve done in Europe so far backs it up, their Champions League games are averaging six goals per match. Six. You don’t see numbers like that unless something truly wild is brewing.
Barcelona have been the most entertaining team on the continent this season. Thirty‑nine goals from their first nine La Liga games is cartoon stuff. They attack in waves, they commit bodies, and they don’t care if it gets messy. They’re box‑office every single week.
And PSG aren’t exactly shy either. They went to Manchester City, one of the hardest away grounds in Europe, and stuck four past them. Four. They play with swagger, they play with pace, and they play with a freedom that makes every match feel like a street fight.
Put these two together and you’ve got the potential for an all‑timer. A Champions League classic. A game where defending is optional and the scoreboard operator earns overtime.
I’m getting involved in the goals.
Tips: Over 4.5 Goals @ 2.08. 1 unit; Over 5.5 Goals @ 3.15. 0.5 units.
Bayern Munich v Arsenal
Champions League, Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany, 9pm CET, Wednesday 21st October
Prices: 2.03 Bayern Munich, 3.80 Draw, 3.30 Arsenal
Bayern v Arsenal is a very different beast to the PSG–Barca madness. This one looks far more straightforward on paper, two of the Champions League frontrunners, both in good nick, both with clear identities, but there’s still plenty going on beneath the surface.
Bayern have been the most bipolar side in Europe so far. On their day, they’re terrifying: 7–0 against Union Berlin, 6–1 against Leipzig, scorelines that make you sit up straight. But then you look at the other column, 3–3 against Viking, a goalless draw at newly promoted Schalke, and you’re reminded that they can wobble, and sometimes badly. They’re explosive, but they’re not stable.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are being Arsenal again. Not much flair, not much chaos, just grinding out results with that suffocating defensive structure. They put on one of their best performances of last season when Bayern came to the Emirates, winning 3–1, and they’ve carried that same discipline into this campaign. They’re the best defence in Europe by a mile.
But this time they’re missing William Saliba, and that’s enormous. He’s arguably their best defender, the anchor of the whole system, and going to the Allianz without him is a completely different challenge. Bayern will smell blood. They’ll want a statement. They’ll want revenge for last season.
I think Arsenal will make it competitive, they always do, but without Saliba, away from home, against a Bayern side that’s desperate to flex, I think the Germans edge a close one on Wednesday.
Tip: Bayern Munich to win & under 3.5 goals @ 3.09. 0.5 units.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.