Last week I thought I’d done it, found the winning formula in football punting, then the betting gods conspire to tell you that some weekends just aren’t meant to be. I had a decent swing at Bayern to beat Leverkusen and Bournemouth to beat Burnley, and on another day they both land without breaking a sweat. Bayern dominated the ball even with nine men, who knows what happens if they keep their discipline, and Bournemouth somehow managed 22 shots without scoring, which should be illegal in most footballing jurisdictions.
Still, I’m comfortably in profit for what’s been an exceptional month so far, so there’s no point sulking. Head down, focus on the card, and let’s get back on the winners board this midweek.
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Chelsea v PSG
Champions League, Stamford Bridge, London, UK, 9pm CET, Tuesday 17th March
Prices: 2.11 Chelsea, 4.41 Draw, 3.00 PSG
PSG absolutely thumped Chelsea last week in a real show of the European champions’ intent to retain their crown. It was a masterful display, the kind of performance that makes you wonder how anyone is supposed to stop them, and while Chelsea did manage to score twice, the scoreline flatters them. Luis Enrique’s side controlled every meaningful phase of the game.
Since then, Chelsea have followed up with that bizarre pre‑match ritual around the referee before losing at home to Newcastle, while PSG enjoyed a weekend off. One team looks composed, rested and ruthless; the other looks chaotic, stretched and unsure of itself.
PSG went to Anfield and the Emirates last season and won both. Chelsea are nowhere near that calibre right now, and the odds on the French champions repeating the trick here feel scarcely believable.
What really elevates PSG is the sheer genius in midfield. Vitinha and João Neves are playing at a level that borders on unfair, dictating tempo, breaking lines and making elite opposition look ordinary. And then there’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who didn’t even start the first leg but scored two from the bench. The idea of him coming into this tie fresh is frankly terrifying.
It leaves Liam Rosenior with an impossible question: does he try to keep the scoreline respectable, or does he chase the kind of comeback that only exists in Hollywood scripts? Either way, PSG will dictate the terms.
At these odds, the play is obvious.
Tip: PSG to win @ 3.00. 1 unit.
Manchester City v Real Madrid
Champions League, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, 9pm CET, Tuesday 17th March
Prices: 1.59 Manchester City, 5.59 Draw, 5.06 Real Madrid
Real Madrid dismantled Manchester City last week. That’s not a sentence anyone has been able to write with a straight face since Pep Guardiola walked through the doors at the Etihad, but dismantling is exactly what it was. Madrid were sharper, braver, more ruthless, and if Vinícius Júnior tucks away his penalty, the tie is probably over already.
City will come out swinging, they always do at home in Europe, but that actually plays beautifully into Madrid’s hands. No team on the planet is more comfortable soaking up pressure and then slicing you apart on the break. The price on a Real win here is borderline insulting, and it has to be a play for me.
Add in the weekend context and the picture becomes even clearer. City stumbled to a dismal draw with West Ham, looking flat and strangely distracted, and you can’t help but wonder whether they already have one eye on the Carabao Cup Final. Madrid, meanwhile, backed up their 3–0 first‑leg win by smashing Elche 4–1, with Arda Güler scoring a Puskás‑level screamer from well inside his own half, a reminder that even their backup players are capable of witchcraft.
Madrid have the momentum, the confidence, the tactical blueprint and the psychological edge. At these odds, it’s Real Madrid for me every day of the week.
Tip: Real Madrid to win @ 5.06. 1 unit.
Tottenham v Atletico Madrid
Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, UK, 9pm CET, Wednesday 18th March
Prices: 2.62 Tottenham, 3.85 Draw, 2.55 Atletico Madrid
Another week, another 5–2 first‑leg demolition of a London club. Tottenham know the game is up. They’re carrying a horrific injury list, they’re running on fumes, and they desperately need to focus on the only thing that matters for them now — staying in the Premier League. Europe is a distraction they can’t afford, and everyone inside that dressing room knows it.
Atletico, meanwhile, won’t let up. That’s not in Diego Simeone’s DNA. They’re in great form, they’re physically imposing, and they smell vulnerability like few sides in Europe. Spurs’ draw at Anfield at the weekend papered over some of the cracks, but Atletico will rip them straight back open.
The theme of this week’s column is simple: the value is outrageous, and this match fits perfectly. Atletico are the better side, the fitter side, the more focused side, and the one with everything still to play for.
At these odds, they’re a must‑back.
Tip: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.55. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.