Midweek was a profitable one. Brighton sealed Liam Rosenior’s fate at Chelsea with a resounding 3–0 win at the Amex, and who knows where the Blues turn now. The following night I was extremely hopeful for a City romp at Burnley, yet somehow they only managed a 1–0 win and reminded me exactly why I never touch handicap betting on short‑priced favourites. Still, profit is profit.
This weekend is another exciting one in all sorts of ways: the final matchweek of my beloved A‑League regular season, plenty to play for in the Premier League, and thus plenty to punt. Here goes.
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Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
Premier League, Stadium of Light, Sunderland, UK, 9pm CET, Friday 24th April
Prices: 2.70 Sunderland, 3.25 Draw, 2.70 Nottingham Forest
A huge game for Forest and the market can’t split them. Sunderland might have little to play for, but they’re still producing the same level of football they’ve shown all season, and they’ve been stubborn at home for months. Forest, meanwhile, are making a proper fist of their survival fight, coming from behind to smash Burnley 4–1 last time out, with Morgan Gibbs‑White bagging a hat‑trick and reminding everyone why half the league wants him this summer.
They’ve also shown they can score anywhere, putting two past City and three past Spurs recently. Sunderland hit three at Villa Park last week, and with both sides in that kind of rhythm, I’m surprised the BTTS market is as tight as it is. Feels like both teams trouble the scoreboard.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.85. 1 unit.
Perth Glory v Brisbane Roar
A-League, HBF Park, Perth, Australia, 1.45pm CET, Saturday 25th April
Prices: 2.55 Perth Glory, 3.55 Draw, 2.45 Brisbane Roar
West meets east in a clash of two clubs who’ve had seasons to forget — but they’re finishing them very differently. Perth have lost just once in their last seven, despite five of those being away from home, and they’ve shown a bit of spirit that was missing earlier in the campaign. Back at HBF Park, they’ll want to give their fans something to cling to heading into the off‑season.
Brisbane, on the other hand, look absolutely spent: no win in 11, leaking goals, and struggling to create anything meaningful. Confidence is rock‑bottom, and the long trip west is the last thing they need. I genuinely can’t understand why Perth aren’t favourites here, given the form lines and the momentum.
Tip: Perth Glory to win @ 2.55. 1 unit.
Manchester United v Brentford
Premier League, Old Trafford, Manchester, UK, 9pm CET, Monday 27th April
Prices: 1.82 Manchester United, 3.95 Draw, 4.05 Brentford
United did the business for us last week and return to Old Trafford looking to all but secure Champions League football. They’ve been strong at home, Leeds game aside, and there’s a bit more fluency about them going forward lately. Brentford are still in the European mix, but five straight draws have stalled their momentum, and they’ve struggled to turn decent performances into wins.
What’s really encouraging for United is how their attacking structure is starting to take shape. Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha look increasingly like the future of their creative hub, mobile, inventive, and capable of breaking lines in different ways. With that trio knitting things together and Harry Maguire back to steady the defence, this feels like the kind of open match that suits United. Brentford will have their moments, but United should have enough quality and control to edge what should be an entertaining encounter.
Tip: Manchester United to win @ 1.82. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.