Every now and then, punting gives you a night you’ll be telling the grandkids about. This midweek was one of them. Real Madrid at 3.50 to win and 2.78 for a Draw No Bet was one of the biggest winners I’ve ever landed, and then PSG casually dismantling Chelsea to stack even more profit on top. It was glorious. I celebrated like prime Alan Pardew doing the FA Cup final boogie, while my wife covered her eyes in second‑hand embarrassment.
She stopped complaining the moment I paid for dinner with the winnings, mind you.
So yes, spirits are high, confidence is flowing, and the weekend European coupon is sitting there looking very, very tempting.
All odds provided from Stake.com.
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Bundesliga, BayArena, Leverkusen, Germany, 3.30pm, Saturday 14th March
Prices: 4.90 Bayer Leverkusen, 4.60 Draw, 1.60 Bayern Munich
Bayern had a stroll in Bergamo in midweek, barely breaking sweat as they wrapped up their tie with Atalanta. Leverkusen, by contrast, emptied the tank against Arsenal, a brilliant performance, but the sort that leaves a mark when you’ve got Bayern waiting for you three days later.
I always like backing the German champions‑elect when they’re above 1.50, and that opportunity presents itself here. They’re full of goals, full of confidence, and carrying a crushing psychological edge over every opponent in the Bundesliga right now. Leverkusen, meanwhile, are wobbling domestically with just two wins in six, and they can’t go full strength here with a trip to London looming.
What really swings it for me is the rhythm Bayern have found. They’re playing with that familiar inevitability again, the kind where they score early, control the tempo, and force the opposition into chasing shadows. Leverkusen’s defensive structure has looked stretched in recent weeks, and Bayern are exactly the wrong team to face when your legs are heavy and your focus is split. They had the reverse fixture wrapped up by half‑time back in November, and with the luxury of fielding their strongest XI again, I’m expecting another assertive, grown‑up performance from them.
Bayern to win, and win well.
Tip: Bayern Munich to win @ 1.60. 2 units.
Burnley v Bournemouth
Premier League, Turf Moor, Burnley, UK, 4pm CET, Saturday 14th March
Prices: 4.10 Burnley, 3.85 Draw, 1.88 Bournemouth
Tip: Bournemouth to win @ 1.88. 1 unit.
Bournemouth are one of the sneaky form teams in the Premier League right now, unbeaten in nine, playing with purpose, structure and a bit of swagger. Burnley, on the other hand, suddenly look like they’re in real danger of finishing bottom now that Wolves have remembered how to play football.
Yes, the Cherries have drawn a few lately, but they tend to handle the bottom sides with a kind of calm inevitability. A win here could even nudge them back into the conversation for Europe, which is wild considering where they were in autumn.
They’ve got a powerful midfield, they’ve got a clear identity, and in Evanilson they’ve got a proper goalscorer. A clever, composed operator who finds chances even in tight games. Burnley simply don’t have the tools to live with that.
What I really like about Bournemouth is how complete they look now. The press is coordinated, the transitions are sharp, and they’ve developed this habit of turning pressure into goals at exactly the right moments. Burnley try to play out, but every misplaced pass feels like it ends up costing them. Bournemouth feast on that sort of vulnerability, and Iraola’s system is tailor‑made to punish teams who aren’t secure in possession. It’s a tricky Premier League weekend overall — I do like the look of Manchester United to beat Villa — but I’m a fully paid‑up member of the Andoni Iraola Appreciation Society, and Bournemouth are the main play in England for me.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.