I’m still floating after that midweek. PSG had Chelsea on toast from the first whistle and I was counting my winnings at half‑time like some sort of Parisian oligarch. Then came the real moment of madness: Vini Jr, 93rd minute, 4/1 riding on his boot… and when it hit the net I was swirling my shirt above my head like a man who’d completely lost touch with reality. Beautiful, beautiful scenes.
It’s a tougher card for this weekend tips column, nothing jumps off the page in quite the same way, and I’ll be back later with something tasty for the Carabao Cup Final. But in the meantime, here are two decent punts to get stuck into while the glow of midweek glory still warms the soul.
All odds provided from Stake.com.
Auckland FC v Macarthur
A-League, Go Media Stadium, Auckland, New Zealand, 3am CET, Saturday 21st March
Prices: 1.65 Auckland FC, 4.10 Draw, 4.70 Macarthur
I’m straight back to my happy place this weekend: a New Zealand home game in the early slot, with an Australian side stumbling off the plane and blinking into the daylight like they’ve just been dragged out of hibernation. It’s a 3pm kick‑off in Auckland, which feels like 1pm for Macarthur, and I absolutely love this situation. I’ve made a career out of backing Kiwi clubs in these fixtures, the body clock does half the work for you.
Auckland come into this buzzing after last week’s smash‑and‑grab against Newcastle. Thirty percent possession, eighteen shots, five on target… that’s not a fluke, that’s a team who know exactly when to spring forward and how to hurt you. They don’t need the ball to dominate a game; they just need a moment, a turnover, a bit of space, and suddenly you’re staring at Sam Cosgrove wheeling away in celebration again. The big man is scoring for fun, Guillermo May is joining in like he’s trying to win a Golden Boot in a single month, and the whole front line looks like it’s permanently on fast‑forward.
Macarthur, meanwhile, are limping towards the finish line. They were thumped 4–1 by Melbourne Victory, they’ve got very little left to play for, and now they’ve got to drag themselves across the Tasman for another brutal away day against a side who still believe they can reel in Newcastle and defend the Premier’s Plate they won last year. Motivation matters at this stage of the season, and Auckland’s is sky‑high.
Everything about this screams home win. The timing, the travel, the form, the goals, the stakes, it all lines up. This is a confident bet, and exactly the sort of spot I live for.
Tip: Auckland to win @ 1.65. 2 units.
Everton v Chelsea
Premier League, Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, UK, 6.30pm CET, Saturday 21st March
Prices: 3.45 Everton, 3.50 Draw, 2.15 Chelsea
I’m not sure there’s a club in world football having a more miserable fortnight than Chelsea. It’s been pure slapstick. First the record fine for breaking transfer rules, then 120 minutes away to Wrexham in the FA Cup, then the mauling in Europe where PSG treated them like training cones, and just when you think the comedy is over, they go and lose at home to Newcastle. If you scripted it, people would say it was too on the nose. The last thing they need right now is a trip up north to face an Everton side who’ve suddenly remembered they’re allowed to be good at football.
Everton were excellent against Arsenal and should have taken something from the game. They looked organised, aggressive, and, whisper it, dangerous. The feel‑good factor is back, and that’s entirely down to David Moyes, who has walked in and immediately restored the sort of structure and belief that used to make Goodison a horrible place to visit. They’re sniffing Europe again, and crucially, they should have James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite back. Those two are elite defensive operators, and when they’re in the XI, Everton look like a proper side.
Chelsea, meanwhile, look like they’re one defeat away from packing it in for the season. Liam Rosenior is getting more and more concerned with every passing game, the squad looks unsettled, and the body language is dreadful. You can almost feel the anxiety radiating off them. So to see Everton at this price is surprising, bordering on disrespectful.
I’ll be backing the Toffees outright because I think they win the game, but the official tip is Everton Draw No Bet. It’s still beefy enough to have a proper smack on, and the safety net is welcome when Chelsea are this unpredictable.
Tip: Everton Draw No Bet @ 2.42. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.