That’s it. Player props are a mug’s game and I’m done pretending otherwise. Nothing landed on the first full day of last‑32 ties, absolutely nothing, except the last, but main, bet of the day on Netherlands v Morocco. It was blood and thunder from start to finish, a proper knockout scrap with a penalty shootout that nearly took years off my life. But Tommy’s toast goes to Issa Diop, whose injury‑time goal dragged the both‑teams‑to‑score bet over the line. A tiny bit of sanity in an otherwise deranged day.
And now we roll straight into Day 20. Only Day 20, apparently. I feel like I’ve watched over 100 hours of football in those 20 days, oh wait, I have. The tournament has definitely cranked up a notch: two penalty shootouts already, two other knockout games decided in injury time, and suddenly the playing field has levelled out. Great for drama, terrible for punting.
But I’m not tapping out. I’m sniffing out winners by hook or by crook. This streak ends today.
Odds provided by Stake.com.
Ivory Coast v Norway
World Cup Last-32, Dallas Stadium, Arlington, USA, 7pm CET, Tuesday 30th June
Prices: 3.45 Ivory Coast, 3.40 Draw, 2.11 Norway
This one should be a cracker, and now that I’ve said that, watch them serve up a 0–0. Surely not though, right? Norway’s B team stuck one past France and even missed a penalty in the final group game, but unfortunately shipped four at the other end. They clearly don’t struggle in attack, and with Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard back in the XI, the whole thing gets a serious upgrade. All three of Norway’s games have produced five goals, making them the tournament’s great entertainers, while Ivory Coast haven’t yet faced an attack as razor‑sharp as the Scandinavians.
The Ivorians aren’t exactly short of firepower themselves. Yan Diomande has been one of the breakout stars of the tournament, everything runs through him, and with the news he’s heading to European champions PSG, he’ll be bouncing into this one. On the other side, Haaland’s return is a nightmare for any defence, and Ivory Coast profile similarly to Senegal, who he scored two against. Direct pace, physical midfield, resolute backline, it doesn’t matter. Haaland gets goals against any shape, any style, any nation.
All signs point to a firefight, and with that in mind I’m backing goals, with the star men on both sides to shine.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.89. 1 unit; Erling Haaland to score anytime & Yan Diomande to score or assist @ 4.51. 0.5 units.
France v Sweden
World Cup Last-32, New York New Jersey Stadium, Rutherford, USA, 11pm CET, Tuesday 30th June
Prices: 1.28 France, 5.60 Draw, 8.80 Sweden
World Cup favourites France — and rightful favourites — take on a Jekyll‑and‑Hyde Sweden side in Tuesday’s middle game, and I can only see this going one way. France have been electric, and Ousmane Dembélé properly joined the party last time out with a sensational hat‑trick in the 4–1 win over Norway. It’s hard to pinpoint a weakness in this French team, and it still feels like they’ve got another gear or two to go up.
Sweden’s strength is clearly in attack. On their day, Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak are goal machines, and Anthony Elanga has arrived in style with a brilliant goal in each of his last two games. Their only real hope is to fight fire with fire and pray France have an off‑day, but with the number of elite forwards France have, that feels unlikely.
Kylian Mbappé had something of an off‑day (by his standards) against Norway, but still managed two shots on target and four in total. On another night he scores, and with Messi now two goals ahead of him in the Golden Boot race, he knows he needs to bag here. I can’t believe it’s paying above even money to combine a France win with an Mbappé goal, so let’s keep it simple and load up the cannon for that price.
Tip: France to win & Mbappe to score anytime @ 2.04. 2 units.
Mexico v Ecuador
World Cup Last-32, Azteca Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico, 3am CET, Wednesday 1st July
Prices: 2.18 Mexico, 2.90 Draw, 3.90 Ecuador
Co‑hosts Mexico, like France, have an immaculate record at this tournament and are yet to even concede a goal. They’ve had a kind draw, though, and now run into an Ecuador side that finished second in CONMEBOL qualifying with an outrageous defensive record. They’re also coming into this off a massive high after coming from behind to beat Germany, easily one of the results of the tournament.
The bookies expect defences to rule here, with under 2.5 goals priced insultingly short, and I’m surprised Ecuador are as big as they are. The Azteca will obviously help Mexico, but Ecuador are used to hostile atmospheres, they only narrowly lost to Brazil and Argentina in qualifying, and those two are a clear step up from Mexico. Mexico’s road has been smooth, but they’ve faced three distinctly below‑average sides in the group stage, and this is a huge jump in quality.
So I’m siding with the outsiders, with the insurance of the draw onside.
And for the record, I wouldn’t put anyone off the 0–0 either.
Tip: Ecuador draw no bet @ 2.60. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.