Monday’s World Cup wagers made for one of those ridiculous, borderline‑spiritual days where everything you touch turns to gold and you start convincing yourself you’re some sort of betting oracle. It started with the simple one: Argentina to win and Messi to score. Bread and butter. Leo slots two, Argentina cruise, and suddenly I’m walking around like I’ve solved football. First tick on the multi. Easy.
Then it was over to Mbappé. I’d backed him for two and I’d backed him for three, because when Kylian gets that look in his eye you may as well ride the lightning. He bags two, France win, and while he didn’t land the hat‑trick I’d already mentally spent, he did enough to keep the whole thing alive. At this point I’m floating. I’m pricing up coffee machines I absolutely do need.
And then it all came down to Erling Haaland, the big Nordic sledgehammer. I wasn’t even watching Norway because I was out with the family, but when the notification pinged in the gents, I let out a yell loud enough to startle anyone within a 25‑metre radius. One goal. Then another. Brace landed. Treble landed. And, look, I shouldn’t mention it… but I also had the three of them to score a brace in the same bet at 102/1. Sometimes the gambling gods just decide to give you a little cuddle.
So yes, the new coffee machine dream is now very much alive.
Day 12 brings the last of the four staggered kick‑offs, and I’m genuinely emotional about it. Eight straight hours of football has basically been my personality for nearly two weeks. Let’s savour it, cling to it, and keep riding this absurd winners’ train as we head into the crunch of the group stage.
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Portugal v Uzbekistan
World Cup Group K, Houston Stadium, Houston, USA, 7pm CET, Tuesday 23rd June
Prices: 1.14 Portugal, 8.90 Draw, 20.00 Uzbekistan
I got my fingers absolutely singed getting stuck into Portugal and Cristiano in the first round of fixtures, and to be honest with you, I’m still not entirely sure what happened after they went ahead early against DR Congo. Something clearly went wrong, horribly wrong, but call me delusional, call me overly optimistic, call me whatever you like… I’m going back in.
Because here’s the thing: I still believe this Portugal side have a proper performance in them. And against plucky, enthusiastic, slightly‑out‑of‑their‑depth Uzbekistan, this feels like the moment Roberto Martínez finally gets the tactics right and lets the handbrake off. If he does, there could be goals. Plenty of them. And you can bet your life Cristiano Ronaldo will be hungrier than ever after the nonsense of the opening game.
So yes, I’m sticking with my ante‑post pick. I think Portugal put things right here. I think they roll Uzbekistan.
Tip: Portugal to score three goals or more @ 1.75. 1 unit.
England v Ghana
World Cup Group L, Boston Stadium, Foxborough, USA, 10pm CET, Tuesday 23rd June
Prices: 1.19 England, 7.15 Draw, 15.00 Ghana
England came through a tough assignment in their first game with flying colours, and once again the fans have that familiar feeling that maybe it’s coming home. The man carrying most of those hopes is Harry Kane, the fourth face on the Mount Rushmore of strikers at this tournament. After watching Messi, Mbappe and Haaland all shine yesterday, Kane knows he cannot afford to ease off in the Golden Boot race, and this match gives him a perfect chance to add at least one more to his tally.
Ghana snatched a late win against Panama, but they were poor for most of the game and Antoine Semenyo was anonymous, which was disappointing after such a strong Premier League season. They did not qualify for AFCON either, and while Carlos Queiroz will have them organised and defensive, they will not be able to keep England out for ninety minutes. Kane can score in so many different ways that it feels like a matter of when, not if, he finds the net in a Three Lions win.
Tip: England to win & Harry Kane to score anytime @ 1.91. 1 unit.
Panama v Croatia
World Cup Group L, Toronto Stadium, Toronto, Canada1am CET, Wednesday 24th June
Prices: 6.75 Panama, 4.40 Draw, 1.49 Croatia
Panama probably deserved something from their opener against Ghana, but they were pretty toothless in what was one of the most disappointing games of the first batch. Croatia, on the other hand, were right in the contest at 2–2 against England at half time before the Three Lions shifted up a gear and pulled away after the break. That leaves Croatia needing three points here to take the pressure off their final group match against Ghana.
Panama are nowhere near the level England operate at, and I did not fancy them to get anything out of this group before the tournament started. Nothing I saw against Ghana changed that view. They might well score in this one, because I am not backing anyone to win to nil ever again, but Croatia should have too much speed, guile and power. They could easily rack up a few goals in the process.
Tip: Croatia to win & over 2.5 goals @ 2.25. 1 unit.
Colombia v DR Congo
World Cup Group K, Guadalajara Stadium, Zapopan, Mexico, 4am CET, Wednesday 24th June
Prices: 1.54 Colombia, 4.05 Draw, 6.80 DR Congo
DR Congo made an impressive start to their World Cup campaign, holding my fancies Portugal to a 1–1 draw. They limited Ronaldo and company to just one shot on target, which is no small feat, but they also had only 25 percent possession. I am not sure you can get away with that too often at this level, especially against a side as strong and as relentless as Colombia. The Colombians overcame a spirited Uzbekistan in their opener, but they should have been well ahead by half time and then allowed an equaliser from a set piece before finally pulling clear in the last half hour.
DR Congo set up with five at the back against Portugal and will probably do the same here. They have some talented players in Aaron Wan‑Bissaka, Yoane Wissa and Cedric Bakambu, but Colombia now have a real chance to win this group and will know it. I would not be backing them at 1.54, but I will take Luis Diaz to find the net. He is one of my each‑way picks for the Golden Boot and his form for club and country this year has been outstanding.
Tip: Luis Diaz to score anytime @ 2.49. 1 unit.
Check out Tommy the Punter’s tipping record here.